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Демографски



Historicaldevelopment

Demographicstatisticsareproducedanddevelopedtomeettheneedsofsocialdevelopmentandnationalmanagement.Itistheearlieststatisticsthatappearedinhumansociety.In4500BC,Babylonhadsurveyedpopulationitems;Chinahadpopulationandlandstatisticsin2100BCduringtheXiaYuera;aftertheZhouDynasty,therewasacensussysteminalldynasties;therewasalsoapopulationsurveysystemin2A.D.Theofficialpopulationrecordsofthewholecountryandsub-regionswererecorded.Theslavesocietyandfeudalsocietyconductedpopulationsurveysandregistrationstomeettheneedsoftherulingclassfortaxation,servitude,andconscription.Themethodsandcontentofstatisticswererelativelysimple;intheHanDynasty,theEmperorWureignedThefirstdemographicstatisticsinhumanhistory;inacapitalistsociety,demographicstatisticshavedevelopedgreatly.Inadditiontostatisticsonpopulationandgender,age,andethnicity,therearestatisticsonemploymentandunemployment,industryandoccupation,educationlevel,religiousbeliefs,maritalstatus,fertility,andotherstatistics.ThestatisticalcontentisbecomingmoreabundantandthedemographicsystemIthasbecomemorecomplete,andhasgraduallyestablishedanddevelopedamoderncensussystem,andpopulationstatisticshavebecomemoreandmoresystematicandcomplete.Inasocialistsociety,economicdevelopmentandpopulationdevelopmentareincludedinthenationalplan.Demographicstatisticsprovideservicesforcompilingnationaleconomicandsocialdevelopmentplans,formulatingpopulationpolicies,implementingfamilyplanning,compilingandinspectingpopulationplans,andfornationaladministrationandpopulationresearch.provideinformation.

Relatedcalculationformulas

1.Birthratereferstotheratioofthenumberofbirthstotheaveragepopulationinacertainplaceinoneyear.Itisgenerallyexpressedinthousands,indicatingthenumberofbirthsperthousandofthepopulationinayear.Thecalculationformulais:

Раждаемост=брой раждания през годината ÷годишно средно население×1000‰

2.Fertilityrateisarelativeindicatorreflectingthefertilityintensityofwomenofchildbearingage.Itisdifferentfromthebirthrate,whichindicatestheproportionalrelationshipbetweenthenumberofbirthsandthetotalpopulation.Thebirthrateisbasedonthetotalpopulationasthebasicdataforcomparison,butinfactonlywomenofchildbearingagehavetheabilitytohavechildren(exceptforinfertility).Therefore,thenumberofbirthsisonlydirectlydependentonthenumberofwomenofchildbearingage.Statisticsandresearchonthefertilityrateofwomenofchildbearingageareofgreatsignificanceforanalyzingthecausesofchangesinthebirthrate,studyingthedevelopmenttrendofpopulationreproduction,andpredictingthefuturedevelopmentofpopulation.

Thecalculationoffertilityratecanbebasedonthespecificrequirementsofdemographicstatistics,usingcalculationmethodssuchasgeneralfertilityrate,fertilityrateforwomenbyage,cumulativefertilityrate,lifetimefertilityrate,andtotalfertilityrate.

3.Thetotalfertilityratereferstotheage-specificfertilityrateforwomenofchildbearingageinacertainyear(oraspecificgroup).Theaveragenumberofchildrenborn.Thetotalfertilityrateisafertilityrateindexthattakesacertainyearasa"cross-section",anditisalsoa"forward-lookingindex".Itischaracterizedbylookingforwardandhasasignalnature.Thecalculationmethodis:

Totalfertilityrate=thesumofthefertilityratesofwomenofallages

4.MortalityisanindicationofthedeathintensityofthepopulationinacertainareainacertainperiodoftimeRelativeindicators.Itisusuallycalculatedwiththeyearastheunitoftime.Thecalculationformulais:

Смъртност=брой смъртни случаи през годината ÷средна популация за годината×1000‰

5.Infantmortalityratereferstothenumberofinfantdeathsbetween0-12monthsTheratioofthenumberofbabiesbornbetween0-12monthsoldisgenerallyexpressedinthousandths.Sincesomeofthedeathsofbabiesfrom0-12monthswerebornthisyearandsomewereborninthepreviousyear,thebirthdensityofthepopulationvariesgreatlyduringtheyear,anditisnotconvenienttocalculatetheannualaverage.Whencalculatinginfantmortality,thedenominatorisusuallythesumof1/3ofthenumberofbirthsinthepreviousyearand2/3ofthenumberofbirthsinthisyear.Thecalculationformulais:

Коефициент на детска смъртност=броят хора, които са починали под една година тази година÷(1/3 броя раждания през предходната година+2/3 броя раждания през годината)×1000‰

6.Thenaturalgrowthratereferstotheratioofthenaturalgrowthofthepopulationinacertainperiodtotheaveragetotalnumberofpeopleintheregionduringtheperiod.Theannualnaturalgrowthrateiscommonlyused,usuallyexpressedinthousandths,referredtoastheself-increasingrate.Thecalculationformulais:

Коефициент на естествен растеж=брой на годишен естествен прираст ÷средногодишната обща популация на годината×1000‰

7.Familyplanningratereferstoacertainperiodinacertainarea(usuallyoneYears)Theratioofthenumberoflivebirthsbornincompliancewiththerequirementsoffamilyplanningtothetotalnumberoflivebirthsinthesametimeperiod,expressedasapercentage.Thecalculationformulais:

Процент на семейно планиране=брой планирани раждания за определена година ÷общ брой раждания за същия период×100%.

8.BirthcontrolrateisthenumberofwomenofchildbearingagewhoimplementbirthcontrolandcontraceptivemeasuresasapercentageoftheirchildbearingageTheproportionofwomen.Thecalculationformulaisasfollows:

Birthcontrolrate=numberofwomenimplementingbirthcontrolandcontraceptivemeasures÷numberofwomenofchildbearingage×100%

Regardlessofwhethertheimplementedmeasuresaremenorwomen,aslongasthebirthcontrolandcontraceptivemeasuresareimplemented,Allaccordingtothestatisticsofthewoman.Thebirthcontrolmeasurestakenbysomecouplesofchildbearingagehavefailed,sotheyshouldbesubtractedfromthenumberofmarriedwomenofchildbearingagewhohaveimplementedbirthcontrolmeasures.Ifbirthcontrolmeasuresaretakenagain,theyshouldbeincludedinanewbirthcontrolmeasure.

9.Therateofreceivingcertificatesforonly-childrenreferstotheratioofthenumberofcertificatesforonly-childrenundertheageof14whoseparentshaveappliedfornolongergivingbirthtothetotalnumberofmarriedwomenofchildbearingage.Thecalculationformulais:

Процентът на получаване на сертификат за едно дете=броят хора, които са получили сертификат за направено дете÷общият брой омъжени жени в детеродна възраст ×100%

10.ThegenderratioofthepopulationismaleorTheratioofwomenisusuallyexpressedastheratioof100womentohowmanymen.Thecalculationformulais:

Полово съотношение=Брой мъже÷Брой жени×100%

11.Asadynamicprocess,populationchangesatalltimes.ThischangeinChinaisquitelarge,andsometimesforstatisticalpurposes(suchascalculatingbirthrate,deathrate,percapitaoutput,percapitaoutputvalue,etc.),itisnecessarytousetheannualaveragepopulationasanindicator.Thisindicatorreflectstheaveragenumberofsurvivorsatvariouspointsintheyear.

Generallycalculatetheannualaveragepopulation,youcanusetheformulaofthepopulationatthebeginningoftheyearplusthepopulationattheendoftheyeardividedby2,namely:

Средногодишното население=(населението в началото на годината+населението в края на годината)÷2

Статистически показатели

Население

PopulationreferstoacertainpointintimeandwithinacertainareaThesumoflivingindividuals.

Theyear-endpopulationinannualstatisticsreferstothepopulationat24:00onDecember31eachyear.ThetotalpopulationofthecountryintheannualstatisticsdoesnotincludethenumberofcompatriotsfromTaiwanProvince,HongKongandMacao,andoverseasChinese.

Figure1showstheglobaldemographics,whileFigure2showsthedemographicsbasedongender.

Общо население на градовете и общо население на селата

Therearetwodefinitionsoftotalpopulationofcitiesandtownsandtotalpopulationofvillages:

(1)Първият калибър (според административната система):

Citypopulation:theentirepopulationintheareaunderthejurisdictionofthecity(includingtownsunderthejurisdictionofthecity,excludingdistrictsandcountiesunderthejurisdictionofthecity);

Градско население: общото население на окръжно администрираните градове (с изключение на общинските градове);

Население на окръг:население на администриран от окръг град.

(2)Вторият калибър (разделен на постоянна популация):

Citypopulation:thepopulationofacitywithdistrictsandthepopulationofstreetsunderthejurisdictionofacitywithoutdistricts;

Townpopulation:thepopulationofresidentscommitteesintownsunderthejurisdictionofcitieswithoutdistrictsandthepopulationofresidentscommitteesintownsunderthejurisdictionofcounties;

Население в областта: всички популации с изключение на горните две популации.

Amongthem,thedatafrom1952to1980arethedataofthefirstcaliber,andthedataafter1982arethedataofthesecondcaliber.

Раждаемост

Раждаемостта (известна също като груба раждаемост) се отнася до среден брой раждания на 1000 души за определен период от време (обикновено годишно), съотношение, обикновено изразено в проценти. Формулата за изчисление е:

Раждаемост = годишен брой раждания/годишно средно число × 1000‰

Amongthem,thenumberofbirthsreferstolivebirths,thatis,whenthefetusisseparatedfromthemother(regardlessofthenumberofmonthsofpregnancy),Havehadbreathingorotherlifephenomena.Theannualaveragepopulationreferstotheaverageofthepopulationatthebeginningandtheendoftheyear,anditcanalsobereplacedbythemid-yearpopulation.

Смъртност

Mortality(alsoknownascrudemortality)referstothenumberofdeathsinacertainareaduringacertainperiod(usuallyayear)andTheratiooftheaveragenumberofpeopleinthesameperiod(orthenumberofpeopleintheperiod)isgenerallyexpressedinperthousand.Thecalculationformulais:

Смъртност=годишен брой смъртни случаи/годишно средно число×1000‰

Thenaturalpopulationgrowthratereferstothenaturalincreaseinpopulationinacertainperiod(usuallyayear)Theratioof(thenumberofbirthsminusthenumberofdeaths)totheaveragenumberofpeopleintheperiod(orthenumberofpeopleintheperiod)isgenerallyexpressedinthousandths.Thecalculationformulais:

Коефициент на естествен прираст на населението=(брой раждания-тази година-брой смъртни случаитази година)/среден годишен брой×1000‰=раждаемост-смъртност на населението

Заето население

Employedpopulation(alsoknownasemployedpopulation)referstothepopulationwhoare15yearsoldandabovewhoengageincertainsociallaborandobtainlaborremunerationoroperatingincome.

Безработното население

Theunemployedpopulationreferstothosewhoarenotengagedinsociallaboramongthepopulationaged15andover,includingschoolstudents,Non-employedpopulationsuchashouseholdchores,waitingforfurthereducation,waitingforemploymentintowns,retired,retired,andincapacitated.

Коефициент на обща тежест

Thetotalburdenfactorreferstothedifferencebetweenthedependentpopulation(peopleaged0-14andover65)andthepopulationaged15-64Proportion.Thecalculationformulais:

Общ коефициент на тежест = Зависимо население/Население на възраст 15-64 × 100%

Коефициент на тежест и възраст

Theburdenofoldagecoefficientreferstotheratiooftheelderlypopulation(populationover65)tothepopulationaged15-64.Thecalculationformulais:

Коефициент на натоварването=Възрастно население/Продадено население 15-64 години×100%

Коефициент на обремененост на младостта

Adolescentburdencoefficientreferstotheratioofadolescentstothepopulationaged15-64.Thecalculationformulais:

Коефициент на тежест при юноши=Население на децата/15~64-годишно население×100%

Indicators

DemographicsisaquantitativestudyofpopulationThecurrentstatus,changesanddevelopmenttrendsofvariousbiologicalcharacteristics(suchasage,gendercomposition)andsocialcharacteristics(suchasoccupation,culturalandeconomicstatusdistribution,etc.).Itisthemaincornerstonefordeterminingthenationalpopulationpolicy,anditisalsoanimportantbasisforvariousdepartmentsofthenationaleconomytoformulateplans,determinedeployment,andadjustpolicies.Thevariouscharacteristicsofthepopulationaredifferent,andthespectrumofdiseasesanddeathsarealsodifferent.Forexample,thespectrumofdiseasesanddeathsindevelopedcountriesareoftendominatedbyheartandcerebrovasculardiseasesandcancer,whilethespectrumofdiseasesanddeathsindevelopingcountriesaremainlybasedontherespiratorysystem.Mainlydiseasesandinfectiousdiseases.Oneoftheimportantreasonsforthisdifferenceisthattheagecompositionandculturalandeconomicdistributionofthepopulationofthesetwotypesofcountriesaredifferent.Thisalsoshowsthatthepopulationswithdifferentcharacteristicshavedifferentneedsforhealthcare.Inaddition,bydynamicallyobservingthedemographicindicatorsofacountryorregion,orcomparingthedemographicindicatorsofdifferentregionsandcountries,youcanevaluatethequalityofhealthcareinacountryorregion.Therefore,demographicstatisticsisnotonlyanindispensablebasisforformulatinghealthcarepolicies,butalsoanobjectiveindicatorforevaluatingthequalityofhealthwork.Demographicindicatorsareusuallydividedintotwocategories,namelystaticindicatorsanddynamicindicators.Figure3showsthedemographicmonitoringpoints.

Статичен индекс

Статичен индекс или индекс на точка от време. Отразява ситуацията в определен момент от време. Той трябва да вземе междусекционни, статични моментни данни от непрекъснато променящ се процес, като население, възраст, пол, етническа принадлежност и т.н. на населението в определено време за определена година, определен месец и определено време. показателите са пирамида на съотношението между половете и населението.

1.Sexratio:reflectstheratiobetweenmenandwomeninthepopulation.Itisusuallyexpressedintermsofhowmanymenthereareforevery100womeninthepopulation.Thatis,inadditiontothesexratioofthetotalpopulation,therearesexratiosofdifferentages.Suchasbirthsexratio,infantsexratioandsoon.Thesexratioofthepopulationhasitsownrules.Atbirth,therearegenerallymorementhanwomen,andthebirthsexratioisgenerallyintherangeof103to107.Sincethedeathrateofmenisusuallyhigherthanthatofwomen,thesexratioiscloseto100intheyoungandmiddleages.Inoldage,therearemorewomenthanmen,sothesexratioismostlybelow100.Certainsocialfactorsoftenleadtosexualimbalance.Forexample,warcancausealargenumberofdeathsofmalecitizensandcauseademographicimbalance(forexample,manycountrieshadmorewomenthanmenduringtheSecondWorldWar);insomesocietieswithstrongfeudalcolors,femaleinfantabuseoftenoccurred.Thisleadstoarelativelyhighbirthrate.Thelawofsexratioisonlyreliablewhenalargenumberofstatisticsareused.

2.Pyramid:Theageandgenderstructureofthepopulationcanberepresentedbypyramidgraphics.Thepopulationpyramidhasacentralaxis,andthescaleonitrepresentsage.Itiscustomarytogroupby1or5yearsold,butyoucangroupbyanyageintervalasneeded,butthegroupsmustbeequidistant;theleftsideofthecentralaxisofthepyramidrepresentsthemalepopulation,andtherightrepresentsthepopulation.Thefemalepopulationcanbeexpressedinabsolutenumbersorpercentages.

Dynamicindicators

Thistypeofindicatorreflectsthenaturalorsocialchangesofthepopulationwithinacertainperiodoftime,suchasbirths,deaths,andmigrationinacertainyear.ItreflectsThetotalsituationofacertaineventcontinuouslyoccurringinacertainperiod,ratherthanthesituationatapointintime,iscalledapopulationdynamicsindexoraperiodindex.Itcanalsoincludethefollowingindicators.

1.Generalbirthrate:referstothenumberofbirthsper1000populationinacertainperiod(usually1year),thatis,itcanroughlyindicatethebirthlevelofacountryorregion.The"population"inthedenominatorusuallyusesthepopulationinthemiddleoftheyear(at24:00onJune30),ortheaverageofthepopulationattheendofthisyearandthepopulationattheendoflastyear(ie,theaveragepopulation).Thebirthrateisaffectedbytheageandsexcompositionofthepopulation.Forexample,whentheproportionofpeopleofchildbearingage(especiallywomen)inthepopulationisrelativelylarge,thebirthratemustberelativelyhigh.

2.Generalmortality:referstothenumberofdeathsper1,000populationinacertainperiodoftime,thatis,itcanroughlyreflectthedeathlevelofacountryorregion.Butlikethebirthrate,itismoreaffectedbytheagecompositionofthepopulation.Forexample,whentheproportionoftheelderlyinthepopulationislarge,themortalityrateisoftenhigh.Therefore,insomecountrieswithmoredevelopedeconomies,medicalandhealthcare,thegeneralmortalityrateishigherthaninsomedevelopingcountries.

3.Naturalrateofincrease:thedifferencebetweentheannualaveragebirthrateandtheordinarydeathrate.

Степен на растеж=нормална раждаемост-смъртност

Itrepresentstheincreaseinthenumberofpeopleper1,000populationinacertainyear.

4.Fertilityrate:thenumberoflivebirths(orbirths)per1,000womenofchildbearingageinacertainyear.Becauseitisnotaffectedbytheageandgendercompositionofthepopulation,itcanbetterreflectthefertilitylevelofacountryorregion.ThegeneralfertilityrateinChinaisaround50‰.

5.Age-specificfertilityrate:fertilityratecanalsobecalculatedaccordingtodifferentagegroups,anditisgenerallycustomarytouse5yearsasanagegrouptocalculate,suchastotalfertilityrate.Theaveragenumberofchildrenborntoevery1,000womenofchildbearingageinthepopulationaftertheirentirechildbearingperiod(15to44yearsold).Thecalculationofthetotalfertilityratevariesdependingontheagegroup.Whengroupingintogroupsofeachage,thesumofage-specificfertilityratesisthetotalfertilityrate;whengroupingintoa5-year-oldagegroup,thesumofage-specificfertilityratesmultiplyingby5isthetotalfertilityrate.China'scurrenttotalfertilityrateisabout2600‰(or2.6).

6.Age-specificmortalityrate:Becausethegeneralmortalityrateisgreatlyaffectedbytheagecompositionofthepopulation,itissometimesnecessarytocalculatetheage-specificmortalityratebyagegroup.Forexample,theage-specificmortalityratecanreflectthelevelofdeathmoreaccuratelythantheordinarymortalityrate.

7.Infantmortalityrate:Infantreferstothechildhoodperiodfrombirthtolessthan12months.Duringthisperiod,theinfant’sresistancetotheoutsideworldisverylowanditisveryeasytodie.Therefore,theinfantmortalityrateisoftenItisasensitiveindicatortomeasuretheculturalandhealthlevelofacountry

8.Maternalmortalityrate.Maternaldeathreferstothedeathofawomanduetoreasonsrelatedtopregnancyandchildbirth,andthedeathoccurredwithin42daysafterthestartofpregnancy.Thecausesofmaternaldeathcanbedividedintodirectobstetriccauses(suchashemorrhage,birthinjury,postpartuminfection,etc.)andindirectcauses(pregnancy,tuberculosis,heartdisease,etc.,deathcausedbythedeteriorationoftheconditionduringpregnancyandchildbirth).Itreflectsthelevelofwomen'shealthcareinacountryorregion.ThecurrentmaternalmortalityrateinChinaisaround50,000.Thedenominatorintheformulashouldtheoreticallyuse"thenumberofpregnantwomeninacertainyear",butthisnumberisdifficulttoobtain(manypeoplehaveundergoneartificialabortionorspontaneousabortionafterpregnancy,andhavenotreportedorregistered),sogenerallyuseanapproximatevalue──livebirthsinacertainyearThetotalnumberisusedinstead.

Методи на държавите

Населението на различните държави в света е различно, а статистическите методи са наистина толкова странни.

SingaporedistributesquestionnairesontheInternettoobtainpopulationnumbersfromfeedback.MauritaniausestheGlobalPositioningSystemtogivepointstothenomadsscatteredinthedesert.Ireland,fearingthatthefoot-and-mouthdiseasewouldaffectthepopulation,simplypostponedtheplannednationalcensus.

TheUnitedNations1995-2005globaldemographiccampaignisunderway.Fromthe7thtothe10thofthismonth,statisticiansfrom55countries,whichaccountforthree-quartersoftheworld’spopulation,gatheredinNewYorktoparticipateinaforumoncensusmethods.Inordertocooperatewiththisforum,theUnitedNationsconductedasurveyonthewaysinwhichthepopulationiscountedinvariouscountries.Thesurveyshowsthatdevelopingcountriesareincreasinglyusinghigh-techmethodsindemographicwork.

Inthe2000Brazilcensus,handheldcomputersandmobilephonesprovidedstatisticianswithreal-timedata.EvenpeopleontheAmazonRivercanregister.ThecensusofficerAliciaBerkovicsaidproudly,"Wecanfindproblemsintimeandimprovethemimmediately."

InIndia,withapopulationof100million,600,000ruralpeoplehavelearnedaboutthesignificanceofthecensusthroughtelevisionprograms.InMarch,afterthreeweeksofdataanalysisandprocessing,thecomputerobtainedthepopulationofthecountry.TheIndianCensusCommissionerBanteaisstillnotsatisfied.HesaidthatthecomputerinNewYorkcompletedtheentireprocessinonly10minutes.

Turkeyreliesonthearmytosetuproadblocksonthestreetstoensurethateveryoneiscounted.Andsomecountrieshavetoadoptencouragement.Forexample,inKyrgyzstan,peoplewhoparticipateinthecensuscandrawalottery,andthegrandprizeisafreeapartment.

Ofcourse,thedemographicsofmostcountriesaresupportedbythepeople.HassanAbribud,directorofthePalestinianBureauofStatistics,saidthatwhenPalestineconducteditsfirstcensusin1997,thepeopleofthewholecountrywereproudofbeingabletoparticipateinthesurvey.InGaza,only18peopledidnotparticipateintheinvestigation.

However,politicssometimesaffectsdemographics.TheUNpopulationexpertsaidthatbecauseSyriaisstationedinLebanon,DamascusisreluctanttoreleasethenumberofpeopleworkingandlivinginLebanon.

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