Introduction
[weatherforecast]Pre-estimationandforecastofweatherchangesinacertainperiodinthefuture.Weatherforecastingisanimportantmeansformeteorologicalworktoservethenationaleconomyandnationaldefenseconstruction.Weatherforecastsaredividedintoforecastranges,includingregionalweatherforecastsandlocalweatherforecasts.Accordingtotheneedsofserviceobjects,therearedailypublicweatherforecastsandprofessionalweatherforecasts.Accordingtothelengthoftime,thereareshort-term,medium-termandlong-termweatherforecasts.TheMeteorologicalObservatorypublishesweatherforecastsinatimelyandaccuratemannerthroughvariouschannels,especiallydisastrousweatherforecasts,whichplayanimportantroleinprotectingpeople'slivesandpropertyandpromotingeconomicdevelopment.Thetechnologyofweatherforecastingdevelopedrapidlywiththedevelopmentoftelegraph.Bytheearly1950s,weatherforecastshadbeenbasedonsynopticprinciples.Withthedevelopmentofcomputingtechnologyanddetectiontechnology,inadditiontotheconventionalweatherchartmethodcombinedwithmathematicalstatisticstomakeforecasts,meteorologicalradarandsatellitedetectiondataareappliedtotheforecastingbusiness,andnumericalforecastingmethodshavebeendevelopedatthesametime.Thismethodpredictsthephysicalprocessoftheatmospherebydeterminingtheprinciplesofconservationofatmosphericmass,energyandmomentum,andsignificantlyimprovesthequalityofweatherforecasts,therebypromotingtheobjectivequantificationofweatherforecasts.
Древни прогнози
Прогнози за времето за древни китайци
Според „теорията за съдбата“, изгрев, залез и прилив и цветя, повтарящи се природни цикли.. Хората могат да направят по-точни прогнози за тези периодични промени. Въпреки това, хората често не успяват да видят редовен изгрев и По това време хората очакват да узнаят своите закономерности предварително.
Sinceancienttimes,Chineseintellectualshavepaidattentiontothepredictionofastronomy,earthquakeandmeteorology.TheancientthinkerDongZhongshuputforwardtheslogan"Quthepeoplestretchouttheruler,andtherulerstretchesoutthesky".Thefirstsentenceistoobeytheemperor.ThesecondsentenceisfortheemperortolistentoGod'swill.Providencerestrictedtheemperor'sactions.Mostoftheseprovidencescomefromtheignoranceofthesky(suchassolareclipses)andtheground(suchasearthquakes),andtheunpredictabilityofextremeweatherandabnormalclimates,suchaslightning,drought,floods,fires,andlocustdisasters.Ignoranceofnaturaldisasters(theemperor)andthelower(subjects)openedthedoorforthesubjectstoexpresstheiropinions.Intheearlydays,astronomyandmeteorologywerenotseparated.Bothastronomyandmeteorologymustbeobservedandforecasted.Threethousandyearsago,mycountry’sOracleincludedrecordsoftheactualweather,includingwind,clouds,rainbows,rain,snow,frost,clouds,tornadoes,andthunderstorms.Afteralargenumberofweathereventshavebeenrecordedinwriting,someintellectualsfinallyhaveanunderstandingoftheclimate.Inancientmycountry,observingastronomyandweather,formulatingcalendars,understandingandpredictingclimate,theclearestusewastoarrangeagriculturalproduction,sacrificesandotheractivities.Theinscriptionsalsoreflectthatpeoplealreadyhaverequirementsforpredictingweatherconditions,whichareallinlinewiththeneedsofagriculturalproductionatthattime.AsfarastheSpringandAutumnPeriod,theancientssetfoursolarterms:Mid-Spring,Mid-Summer,Mid-AutumnandMid-Winter.Continuousimprovementandperfectioninthefuture,bytheQinandHanDynasties,thetwenty-foursolartermshavebeenfullyestablished.
WeatherforecastforancientWesterners
Weatherforecastisanappliedscience.Theachievementsofscienceoriginatefromthought.Around340BC,theancientGreekphilosopher,scientistandeducatorAristotle(384BCto322BC)wrotetheworld'searliestmonographonmeteorology,"GeneralMeteorology".Thebookdescribesthecausesanddistributionofhurricanes,foehnwindsandwinds,atmosphericlightpatternssuchashalos,rainbows,andthunderandlightning,theformationofclouds,rain,hailandhaze,andclimatechange.Aristotlesystematicallysortedoutallthepreviousmeteorologicalthoughtsandexperiences,andputforwardhisowninsightsandtheoriesonvariousweatherphenomena,makingitasystematicscience—ancientmeteorology,namelyTheideologicalbasisofancientweatherforecasting.Thedescriptionoflocalweatherobservationsatthattimedeterminedthattheweatherforecastwasalsolocal.Aristotledividedthelocalskyintotwoupperandlowerparts:oneisthecelestialdomain-theareaoutsidethemoon'sorbit,andtheotheristhearea-therangefromthemoon'sorbittotheground.Theformeristhescopeofastronomyobservationandresearch,whiletheatmosphericphenomenaoccurringinthelatterbelongtotheresearchobjectofmeteorology.Hebelievesthatdryandwarmemissionsconstitutewind,anddampandcoldemissionsconstitutewatervapor,whichisthesourceofrain.Therefore,airisthemediumofwatervaporandwind.Clouds,rain,snow,frost,anddewareallcausedbychangesinairtemperature.Forming.TheauthorityofAristotledominatedwesternmeteorologicaltheoryfortwothousandyears.Beforetheendofthe17thcentury,allwesternmeteorologicalworksandtreatiseswerenotabletoescapetheinfluenceofAristotle'smeteorology.
Developmenthistory
Earlyweatherforecast
Numericalvaluesarethelanguageofscience.Weatherforecastingisinseparablefromthequantitativeobservationofatmosphericmotionbyinstruments.Wecansettheinventionandapplicationofmeteorologicalinstrumentsasthestarttimeofearlyweatherforecasting.
Inthe15thcentury,theWestinventedtheplatenanemometer,whichcanquantitativelymeasurethespeed(energy)ofatmosphericmotionforthefirsttime.Fromthe17thtothe18thcentury,scientistssuccessivelyinventedvariousinstrumentsforquantitativelymeasuringweatherphenomena,markingthebeginningofanewperiodofdevelopmentforthedetectionmethodsofmeteorologicalscienceresearch.BritishphysicistHooke(1635-1703)inventedthehygrometer.In1606,Galileoinventedthethermometer.In1639,Galileo'sdiscipleBenedettoCastelliinventedtheraingauge.In1644,Torricelliinventedthebarometer.In1774,Cotteinventedthehygrometer.Inthemiddleofthe18thcentury,peoplebegantoattempthigh-altitudeexploration.In1748,BritishA.Wilsonandothersbegantocarrythermometerswithkitestoobservelow-altitudetemperature.In1752,AmericanscientistB.Franklinusedkitesandothertoolstodetectandstudythepropertiesofelectricchargesinthunderstormclouds.In1783,France'sJ.A.C.Charlieusedhydrogenballoonsforthefirsttimetocarrytemperature,pressureandotherself-recordingmeteorologicalinstrumentstomeasuretemperatureandpressureatvariousaltitudes.Theseearlierhigh-altitudesurveysareusedtomeasurethetemperatureandairpressureatvariousaltitudesandotherelementsforfutureresearchonlargemeteorologicalinstruments.
Withtheinventionofmeteorologicalinstrumentsandtheestablishmentofobservationnetworks,aswellasthedevelopmentoffluiddynamicstheory,itispossibletoestablishatheoreticalsystemforweatherforecasting.In1820,Germany'sH.W.Brandesusedthemeteorologicalobservationdatapublishedinthe"JournaloftheBaladinMeteorologicalSociety"tofillintherecordsofthepressureandwindatthesametimein1783onthemap,makingittheworld'sfirstweathermap.Thispioneeringworkhastakenasolidstepforwardinanalyzingtherelationshipbetweenairpressure,windandweather,andestablishingaconceptualmodeloftheweathersystem.Thebirthoftheweatherchartisasignofmodernmeteorologicaltheoreticalresearchandmodernweatherforecastingpractice.Theinventionofthetelegraphhasprovidedconditionsfortherapidtransmissionofmeteorologicalobservationdataandtheconcentrationofinformationinvariousplaces,makingitpossibletodrawreal-timeweathermaps.In1851,J.GlescheroftheUnitedKingdomusedtelegraphtotransmitdataanddrewinstantaneousweathermapsforpracticalapplications.
Modernweatherforecast
Inthepasthundredyears,somemeteorologicalleadershavemadefulluseofthecombinationoflarge-scalegroundandupperairobservationdataandmathematicalmethods,whichhasstronglypromotedthedevelopmentofweatherforecasttheory.Andtheimprovementoftheweatherforecastservicelevel.OneisthecirculationtheoryandcyclonewavemodeloftheNorwegianschool,andthesecondisthelongwavetheoryoftheChicagoschool,whichhasmadeoutstandingcontributionstothedevelopmentofmeteorologicalsciencerecognizedworldwide.
ThecorefigureoftheNorwegianSchoolisV.Peyknis(1862-1951).Hehasbeenunremittinglytransformingmeteorologyfromrandomobservationaldatacollectionandaccidentalspeculativeforecastingtorigorousscience,andiscommittedtoimprovingtheaccuracyofweatherforecastsandlong-termweatherforecasts.Hiswishwastotransformmeteorologyintoanauthoritativediscipline,andthiswishwasrealizedwhenheworkedattheBergenSchoolofMeteorology.Military,agriculture,aviation,andfisherieshavequicklybecomeindustriesthatrelyonPeyknis’researchresults.Attheendofthe19thcentury,heputforwardarevolutionaryideaofapplyingtheprinciplesoffluidmechanicsandthermodynamicstoatmosphericmotion.Hisimportantachievementsinclude:in1897,hestudiedthecirculationmovementintheatmosphereandintroducedtheconceptofforcetubeforthefirsttime;in1904,heproposedtheconceptofdigitalweatherforecast;in1910,heproposedtodrawstreamlinesontheweathermaptorepresentthehorizontalmovementoftheair.Italsoanalyzestheconvergenceanddivergencezones;in1918,thedifferencebetweencoldandwarmfrontsinalow-pressureweathersystemwasdiscovered,andtheconceptofcoldandwarmfrontswasestablished,andFrontwasthenameoftheinterfacebetweenthecoolingandheatingmasses.
ThereisalsoacorefigureoftheNorwegianschool,cloudphysicistBergeron,whonotonlycontributedtothephysicsofclouds,butalsomadeachievementsintheclassificationofweatherconditions.Hesystematicallysortedoutthevariousdataheobservedandcollected,andin1919proposedthetheoryofthecycloneimprisonmentstage,whichenrichedthecyclonelifehistorymodel.Inhisdoctoraldissertation,healsoproposedconceptssuchasairmassclassification,frontalzone,andfrontogenesis,whichmadeimportantcontributionstoweatheranalysisandforecasting.
ChicagoSchoolbeganbrewinginthe1930s,formedandreacheditspeakinthe1940s,andcontinuedtoprosperinthe1950sand1970s.C.G.Robes(1898-1957),thecorefigureoftheChicagoSchool(orAmericanSchool),discoveredlongwavesonhigh-altitudeweathercharts.In1939,heproposedthelong-wavedynamics,derivedthepotentialvorticityequationfromthis,andfoundedthelong-wavetheory.Inthe1940s,theChicagoSchoolunderhisleadership,includingE.HPalmenandothers,confirmedthestructureandchangesofhigh-altitudewesterlyjetsandlongwaves,aswellastheirrelationshipwithcyclonewavesontheground.RossbyandtheChicagoSchool’smajorcontributiontoweatherforecastingisthe"RosbyWave",alsoknownasthe"AtmosphericLongWave".TheworkoftheChicagoSchoolhasstrengthenedtheconnectionbetweensynopticsandthermodynamicsanddynamics,enrichedthephysicalfoundationofweatheranalysisandforecasting,andprovidedtheoreticalbasisforthestudyoflarge-scaleatmosphericmotion,andpromotedthedevelopmentandapplicationofnumericalweatherprediction.
Modernweatherforecast
Modernweatherforecastismarkedbythegradualreplacementofconventionalweathermapforecastswithmoderndetectiontechnologies(weathersatellitesandweatherradars)andnumericalweatherforecastmodelssupportedbyhigh-speedcomputers.Theapplicationofthesetechnologiesandmethodsinweatherforecastingroughlybeganinthe1950s.
Forecastingmethods
Doublestations
Beforethe17thcentury,peoplemadeweatherproverbsbyobservingthechangesincelestialandphysicalphenomenatopredictthelocalweatherinthefuture.Afterthe17thcentury,meteorologicalobservationinstrumentssuchasthermometersandbarometersappearedoneafteranother,andgroundmeteorologicalstationswereestablishedoneafteranother.Atthistime,weatherforecastsweremainlybasedonchangesinsingle-stationairpressure,temperature,wind,andclouds.
Weathermap
In1851,theUnitedKingdomfirsttransmittedobservationdataviatelegram,drawnitintoagroundweathermap,andmadeweatherforecastsbasedontheweathermap.Sincethe1920s,airmasstheoryandpolarfronttheoryhavebeenappliedtoweatherforecasting.Inthe1930s,theinventionofradiosondes,theemergenceofhigh-altitudeweathermaps,andthewideapplicationoflong-wavetheoryinweatherforecastinghaveadvancedtheanalysisofweatherevolutionfromtwo-dimensionaltothree-dimensional.Inthelate1940s,theapplicationofweatherradarprovidedaneffectivetoolforforecastingprecipitationandsevereweathersuchastyphoons,heavyrains,andseverestorms.
Numericalweatherforecasting
Numericalweatherforecastingusesatmosphericmotionequationstointegrateequationsundercertaininitialandboundaryconditionstoforecastfutureweather.In1921,Richardsonfirsttriedtousenumericalmethodstoforecasttheweather.Becauseofthehugeamountofcalculationwork,heorganizedalotofmanpoweranddesigneddetailedcalculationtablestocomplete.However,theforecastresultswereseriouslyinconsistentwiththeactualatmosphericchanges.Thereasonwasthattheeffectsofhigh-frequencywavesintheatmospherewerenothandledproperly.In1950,Charneyusedtheworld'sfirstcomputerENIACtosuccessfullyproducea24-hournumericalforecastbasedontheatmosphericmotionequationsafterfilteringouthigh-frequencywaves.Withthedevelopmentofcomputertechnology,theadvancementofobservationmethods,andthedeepeningofunderstandingofatmosphericphysicalprocesses,numericalweatherpredictionhasmadegreatprogressandhasbecomethemainmeansofweatherforecasting.Especiallysincethelaunchofmeteorologicalsatellitesinthe1960s,thesatellite'sdetectiondatahavemadeupforthelackofmeteorologicaldatainareassuchasoceans,deserts,polarregions,andplateaus,whichhassignificantlyimprovedthelevelofweatherforecasting.
Forecastmethod
Situationforecast
Itistoforecastthegenerationanddisappearance,movementandintensitychangesofvariousweathersystemsinacertainperiodoftimeinthefuture.Itisthebasisofmeteorologicalelementforecasting.Situationforecastingmethodscanbedividedintotwocategories:oneisnumericalforecastingmethods,thatis,directlyintegratingatmosphericequationsorsimplifiedequations,andforecastingthefuturepressurefield,temperaturefield,andwindfieldbasedontheresults;theotherisWeatherchartmethod.Thelatterhasthefollowingmethods:
1.Емпиричен метод на екстраполация
alsoknownasthetrendmethod,isbasedonthepastmovementpathandintensitychangetrendofvariousweathersystemsontheweathermaptoinfertheirfuturelocationandintensity.Thismethodiseffectivewhenthereisnosuddenchangeinthemovementandintensityoftheweathersystemorwhenthereisnonewbirthordeathoftheweathersystem;however,whenthereisasuddenchangeorwhenthereisanewbirthordeathoftheweathersystem,theforecastisoftennotinlinewithreality.
2.Метод на подобна ситуация
Alsoknownasmodelmethod,itistofindsomesimilarweathersituationsfromalargenumberofhistoricalweathermapsandsummarizethemintocertainpatterns.Ifthecurrentweathersituationissimilartotheprevioussituationofacertainmodel,theforecastcanbemadewithreferencetothelaterevolutionofthemodel.Sincesimilarityisalwaysrelative,itisimpossibletobeexactlythesame.Therefore,errorsoftenoccurinthismethod.
3.Метод на статистическите данни
Alsoknownascorrelationmethod,ituseshistoricaldatatocalculatetheoccurrence,developmentandmovementofvariousweathersystemsindifferentseasonsinhistorytoobtaintheiraveragemovingspeedandfindForecastindicators(suchascyclonegeneration,typhoonturningindicators,etc.)forforecasting.Thismethodcannotbeappliedtoexamplesthathavenotappearedinhistoryormovedveryfastandveryslowly.
4.Метод за физичен анализ
Firstly,itanalyzesthephysicalfactorsoftheweathersystem'sgenerationanddisappearance,movementandintensitychanges,andthenmakesweatherforecastsonthisbasis.Thismethodusuallyhasbetterresults.However,whenthesimplificationsandassumptionsoftheequationsofmotionthatreflectthesephysicalfactorsdonotconformtoreality,theyoftencauseforecasterrors,orevendeviatefarfromtheactualsituation.
Theabovefourmethodshavetheirownadvantagesanddisadvantages.Whenusingthem,theyneedtocomplementeachother,learnfromeachother'sstrengthsandmakeupfortheirweaknesses,andconsidercomprehensivelytoobtainbetterresults.
Елементна прогноза
Която предвижда промените в температурата, вятъра, облаците, валежите и метеорологичните явления за определен период от време в бъдещето. Прогнозата на ситуацията е основата на елементното прогнозиране. Има няколко метода за елементно прогнозиране:
1.Емпиричен прогнозен метод
Basedontheweathermapsituationforecast,accordingtothefuturepositionandintensityoftheweathersystem,forecastthefutureweatherdistribution.Forexample,whenthelowpressuremovesandisstrengthened,itcanbeforecastedthattherewillberainyweatherorheavierprecipitationinthefuture.Theaccuracyofthismethoddependstoalargeextentontheexperienceoftheforecaster,andbecausetheweathersystemandweatherphenomenadonotcorrespondone-to-one,theforecasteffectisnotstableenough.
2. Статистически методи за прогнозиране
Analyzehistoricalweatherdata,seekthecorrelationbetweenchangesinatmosphericconditionsandpreviousmeteorologicalfactors,useregressionequationsandprobabilityprinciplestoscreenforecastfactorsandestablishforecastequations.Gettherequiredforecastvalue.Theeffectofthismethodmainlydependsonthecorrectchoiceoffactors.
3.Динамична статистика
Thefuturemeteorologicalparameterscalculatedbynumericalforecastingmethodsareusedasforecastfactors,andasetofforecastformulasareobtainedbyregressionequationstomakeelementforecasts.Withtheimprovementofthenumericalmodel,theaccuracyofthismethodmayincreasesteadily.
Процес на прогнозиране
Съвременната прогноза за времето има пет компонента:
1.Събиране на данни
ThemosttraditionaldataisonthegroundOrdatasuchasairpressure,temperature,windspeed,winddirection,humidity,etc.collectedbyprofessionals,enthusiasts,automaticweatherstationsorbuoysonthesea.TheWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationcoordinatesthetimingofthesedatacollectionsandsetsstandards.Thesemeasurementsaredoneeveryhour(METAR)oreverysixhours(SYNOP).
Datafrommeteorologicalsatellitesisbecomingmoreandmoreimportant.Meteorologicalsatellitescancollectdatafromallovertheworld.Theirvisiblelightphotoscanhelpmeteorologiststoexaminethedevelopmentofclouds.Theirinfrareddatacanbeusedtocollectthetemperatureofthegroundandcloudtops.Bymonitoringthedevelopmentofthecloud,thewindspeedanddirectionattheedgeofthecloudcanbecollected.However,becausetheaccuracyandresolutionofmeteorologicalsatellitesarenotgoodenough,grounddataisstillveryimportant.
2.Асимилация на данни
Thedatacollectedintheprocessofdataassimilationiscombinedwiththedigitalmodelusedforforecastingtogeneratemeteorologicalanalysis.Itisthebestestimateoftheatmosphericstate.Itisathree-dimensionalrepresentationoftemperature,humidity,pressure,windspeed,andwinddirection.
3.DataWeather
Calculatethechangesoftheatmosphereovertimeaccordingtotheresultsofphysicsandfluidmechanics.
4.Обработка на изхода
Theoriginaloutputcalculatedbythemodelgenerallyneedstobeprocessedbeforeitcanbecomeaweatherforecast.Thesetreatmentsincludeusingstatisticalprinciplestoeliminatedeviationsinknownmodels,ormakingadjustmentswithreferencetothecalculationresultsofothermodels.
5.Производствен процес
Accordingtothedataprovidedbyrelevantdepartments,makeachartofthenationalweathersituationonthecomputer(itisthebackgroundpictureoftheweatherforecastprogram);thehoststandsinfrontofabluescreen"Pointandpoint",explaintheweather(howtograspthelocationofeacharea,thehosthasonlyonesecret-rotememorization);thefilmandtelevisioncenterconductsimagesynthesis,replacingthebluescreenwithchartsonthecomputer;thefilmandtelevisioncenterwillcompletetheproductionoftheprogramTransmittedtoCCTV.
Типове прогнози
Разделени по времеви диапазон, тоест според продължителността на прогнозата за времето, могат да бъдат разделени на:
1.Short-termforecast.Accordingtoradarandsatellitedetectiondata,thelocalstrongstormsystemwillbemonitoredandforecastedforthenext1to6hours.
2. Краткосрочна прогноза. Прогноза за времето за следващите 24 до 48 часа.
3.Средносрочна прогноза.Прогноза за следващите 3-15 дни.
4.Дългосрочна прогноза. Отнася се за прогнозата от 1 месец до 1 година.
5. Свръхдългосрочна прогноза. Периодът на прогнозата е от 1 до 5 години.
6.Прогноза за климата.Повече от 10 години.
Statisticalmethodsaremainlyusedtomakeforecastsbasedonthedeviationbetweentheaveragevalueofeachmonth'smeteorologicalelementsandthemulti-yearaveragevalue.Themethodofmakinglong-termforecastsusingnumericalforecastingmethodsisbeingtested,andsomeprogresshasbeenmade.Theforecastperiodof1-5yearsiscalledultra-long-termforecast,andtheforecastof5yearsormorethan10yearsiscalledclimateoutlook.
Accordingtothecoverageareatoforecasttherange,theweatherforecastcanbedividedinto:
1.Large-scaleforecast.Generallyreferstoglobalforecasts,hemisphericforecasts,continentalorcountry-wideforecasts.MainlyproducedbytheWorldMeteorologicalCenter,RegionalMeteorologicalCenterandNationalMeteorologicalCenter.
2.Средносрочна прогноза.Често се отнася до прогнозите за провинции(региони),щати и региони,които са произведени от провинциални,градски или щатски метеорологични станции и регионални метеорологични станции.
3.Мащабна прогноза.Например,прогноза за цяла област,прогноза за град,прогноза за целия резервоар,и летище,пристанищна прогноза и др.Тези прогнози се произвеждат от местни метеорологични станции.
ForecastService
Howtoprovidetheweatherforecasttotheuserdepartmentsandthepeopleintimeisthecentrallinkoftheforecastservice.Themostextensiveandeffectiveservicemethodsare:newspaperpublication,radiobroadcasting,televisionbroadcasting,weathertelephoneconsultation,etc.Inaddition,italsoprovidesservicestospecializeddepartmentsthroughdedicatedtelephone,telexandwrittenforms.Thespecialradioforweatherforecastisaradiothatcanbeturnedonatanytimetoreceivethecurrentweatherforecastbroadcast.Whensevereweatherisabouttohappen,thespecialweatherbroadcastingstationcanuseasignalofacertainwavelengthtomakethisradioautomaticallystartthecall.Peoplewhofallasleepcanalsobeawakenedbythesignalandhearsevereweatherwarnings,whichprovidesthepossibilitytotakepreventivemeasuresintime.
Aftertheweatherstationhasproducedtheweatherforecast,itwillannouncetheweatherforecasttothesocietythroughvariouschannels.Themainwaystodisseminateweatherforecastsaretelevision,newspapers,theInternet,mobilephonetextmessages,weathercalls,andtheInternet.ObtainingweatherforecastinformationthroughtheInternetwillbethefuturetrend.Well-knownweatherforecastwebsitesincludeChinaWeatherNetwork,CentralMeteorologicalObservatory,WeatherOnline,etc.TheCentralMeteorologicalObservatorywebsiteprovidesreal-timeweatherforecastinformationandweeklyweatherforecastinformationformajorcitiesandregionsacrossthecountry.
Общи термини
Добре: Небесният облак е по-малко от 30%.
Облачно: Покриването на небесните облаци представлява 90% или повече.
Fog:Alargenumberoftinywaterdropletsoricecrystalsfloatintheairneartheground,andthehorizontalvisibilitydropstowithin1km,whichaffectstransportation.
Лелек влак: Дневните валежи са по-малко от 10 mm.
Проливен дъжд: дневните валежи са 25,0-49,9 mm.
Гръмотевични дъждове: дъждовни дъждове, които внезапно спират и падат, придружени от светкавици и гръмотевици.
Hail:Thesmallhailnucleusrisesrepeatedlywiththefierceverticalmovementinthecumulonimbuscloud,condensesandmelts,andgrowsintosmalliceblockswithalternatingtransparentlayersandfalls,whichaffectscrops.
Замръзващо зърно: дъждовните капки са замръзнали на земята под 0 ℃, известни също като Юсонг (замръзнали от капчици мъгла, наречени пещ), които десет прекъсват жици, което прави пътя по-силен и влияе върху комуникацията, електрозахранването, транспорта и др.
Суграшица: температурата близо до земята е малко по-висока от 0℃, влажен дъжд и снеговалеж по същото време.
Слаб сняг: Ежедневният снеговалеж (разтопен във вода) е по-малък от 2,5 мм.
Среден сняг: Дневният снеговалеж (разтопен във вода) е 2,6-4,9 мм.
Силен снеговалеж: Ежедневният снеговалеж (разтопен във вода) достига над 5,0 mm.
Frost:Thewhitefrostonthegroundandthesurfaceoftheobjectwherethetemperatureislowerthan0℃iscalledfrost.Thewatervaporcontentislowandnofrostisformed.Itissaidthatblackfrostisharmfultocrops.Itiscalledfrost.
Low-pressuretroughsandhigh-pressureridges:onthefluctuatinghigh-altitudewesterlyairflow,thetroughcorrespondstothelow-pressuretrough,warmairinfrontofthetroughisactive,rainyandsnowyweather,coldairbehindthetroughiscontrolled,andwindyweatheriscool;wavecrestCorrespondingtothehighpressureridge,theskyisclear.
Coldfrontandwarmfront:Thecoldfrontisthefrontofthecoldair.Atthejunctionofthecoldandwarmairmasses,thecoldairadvancestowardthewarmair.Windyandintenseweatheronthecoldfront,strongwindsbehindthefronttocooltheweather;onthecontrary,itisawarmfront,withrainyweatheronthefront,cloudyandsunnyweatherbehindthefront,andthetemperaturerises.
GaoFeng:Expressedbythewindarrow,composedofwinddirectionrodsandwindfeathers.Thewinddirectionrodreferstothedirectionofthewindandhas8directions.Thewindplumeconsistsof3,4dashesandtrianglestoindicatethewindforceofthestrongwind,whichisperpendiculartotherightsideoftheendofthewinddirectionrod(NorthernHemisphere).
Общо разбиране за времето
Когато слушам прогнозата за времето, често научавам фрази като "днес" и "днес вечер" и "облачно", "облачно", "слънчево" и др. Метеорологични термини.
"Днес през деня" се отнася за 12 часа от 8:00 до 20:00 през нощта; "Тази вечер" се отнася за 12 часа от 20:00 до 8:00 на следващата сутрин."Добре" означава, че облачното покритие представлява 10-30%; "облачно" означава, че облачното покритие представлява 40-70%; "Ин" аз и че облачното покритие представлява 80-100%.
Има два стандарта за валежи в метеорологичната единица: 12 часа и 24 часа. 12-часовият стандарт за валежи е: "слаб дъжд" се отнася за валеж от 0,6-5 мм; "умерен дъжд" - валеж от 5,1-15 мм; "силен дъжд" 15,1-30 мм; "силен дъжд" 30,1-70 мм ;Heavyrain"70.1-200mm.The24 -часово ниво на валежи е стандартно: "слаб дъжд" се отнася за 1-10 мм; "умерен дъжд" се отнася за 10,1-25 мм; "силен дъжд" се отнася за 25,1-50 мм; "силен дъжд" се отнася за 50,1-100 мм; "силен дъжд" се отнася за валежи от 100,1-250 мм. Ако прогнозното време не надвишава 12 часа, това означава, че 12- час ниво на валежистандартно. Ако се прогнозира да има сняг днес през деня или през нощта, това означава сняг да вали в рамките на 12 часа. Ако се прогнозира, че от деня тази вечер днес ще вали умерен до силен сняг, това се отнася за количеството на валежите в рамките на 24 часа. В допълнение към прогнозите за 12.24 часа има 48 -часови прогнози,72-часови прогнози и бъдещ анализ на времето.
BecausetheMeteorologicalBureauprovidesonlythreeforecastsdailytoTVstations,radiostations,andmajornewspapers:morning,noon,andevening.Itisimpossibletomaketimelyforecastsforsuddenweatherchanges.Howcanwelearnaboutsuddenweatherchangesintime?SinceSeptember2009,Chinahasopeneda121weatherhotline.Onaverage,thereisanewforecasteverytwohours,whichistimelyandaccurate,convenientandfast.Forexample,the121weatherhotlineinYangzhoucananswer60callsatthesametime,andthecallchargesareequaltoordinarylocalcalls.Mostcityweatherstations(bureaus)openofficialweathermicroblogs.
Прогноза за времето за животни и растения
Прогноза за времето за животни
Swallows:swallowsareflyingclosetothegroundinsultryweather,itiswindyandheavyrainAsignthatiscoming.Becausetheairhumidityishighbeforeitrains,thewingsofinsectsaremoistanddonotflyhigh.Inordertocatchtheinsects,theswallowsflylowforfood.
Bee:Whencollectinghoney,itwillcomeoutearlyandreturnlate,indicatingthatthenextdaymustbesunny;ifitdoesnotleavethenestorleaveslate,itwillreturnearly,itwillberainysoon;ifWhenitrains,itcollectshoney,whichindicatesthattheskywillbeclear.
Ants:Iftheyholdwhiteseedsintheirmouths,lineupandmovetoahigherplaceinahurry,itindicatesthattherewillbecontinuousrainydaysandheavyrainfall;iftheymovetoalowerplace,Tellsus:therewillbedroughtinthefuture,andthewatersupplyhereisinsufficient.
Loach:Loachiscalled"livingbarometer".Iftheloachisirritable,churnsupanddown,andtherearemanybubblesonthewatersurface,itindicatesthatitwillrainsoonortherewillbeastrongnortherlywind;onthecontrary,iftheloachsitsquietlyonthebottomofthewater,itindicatesthattheweatherisclear.
Змия: Змията излезе от пещерата, застана настрани по пътя или пълзеше бавно във всяка посока, показвайки, че вали дъжд. Ако броят на змиите от дупката се увеличава, те стават по-големи; напротив, те са по-малки.
Паяк: На здрач щипките му се захващат за улавяне на насекоми. Това казва на хората: Напоследък е слънчево и няма облаци в небето; ако коприната виси надолу, това означава, че идва дъждовен ден.
Костенурка:Това е студенокръвно животно. Костенурката лесно разсейва топлината и температурата на тялото й е по-ниска от температурата. Следователно, щом костенурката се „изпоти“ на гърба си, това означава, че ще вали.
Прогноза за времето за растения
"Flowersknowsunnyandrainy,grassandtreesreportweather".Itwasdiscoveredthatintheplantkingdom,somememberscanpredicttheweatherlikeaweatherstation.
Themostfamous"weatherforecaster"isa100-year-oldgreengangtreeinLongdingVillage,XinchengCounty,Guangxi.Whenitissunny,itsleavesaredarkgreen,andtheweatherwillbedrybeforeitrains.,Theleavesturnred,andwhentheweatherturnsfineafterrain,theleavesreturntotheiroriginaldarkgreen.Afterresearchbyscientists,itturnsoutthatinadditiontochlorophyll,itsleavesalsocontainlutein,anthocyanin,carotene,etc.Iftheweatherisnormalandthechlorophyllmetabolismisalsonormal,theleaveswillnaturallybedarkgreen.Oncethehotandbrightweathercomes,thesynthesisofchlorophyllwillbeinhibitedandthesynthesisofanthocyaninswillbeaccelerated,sotheleaveswillturnred.
Flowersalsohave"weatherflowers".ThereisakindofwonderfulcalamusinXishuangbannainourcountry.Whenastormisabouttocome,itwillbloomwithalargenumberofbeautifulflowersandredpetalsthatdyethedeepmountainsandoldforests.Dyedredcliffs...Themysteryofthecalamuslotuspredictingwindandrainisthatbeforethestormcomes,theoutsideatmosphericpressuredrops,theweatherissultry,andtheplant'stranspirationincreases,makingitsbulbsthatstorenutrientsproducealotofhormones.,Thusbloomingalotofflowers.
Thereisalsoakindof"temperaturegrass"insouthernSweden.Itcannotonlyforecasttheweather,butalsomeasurethetemperature.Theleavesofthisgrassareoval,andtheflowersthatbloomareblue,yellow,andwhite.Peoplealsocallitpansy.Theleavesofthisplantareextremelysensitivetoairtemperature.Whenthetemperatureisabove20°C,theleavesextenddiagonallyupward;whenthetemperaturedropsto15°C,theleavesslowlymovedownwardsuntiltheyareparalleltotheground;whenthetemperaturedropsAt10°C,thebladesprotrudeobliquelydownward.Ifthetemperaturerisesandtheleavesreturntotheiroriginalstate,thelocalresidentscanknowthetemperaturelevelaccordingtothedirectioninwhichtheleavesextend.
Inthesummermorning,ifthevineheadsofthepumpkinarealltilteddown,itindicatesthatitwillrain;andintherainyweather,ifmostofthevineheadsofthepumpkinaretiltedup,itindicatesthatasunnydaywillbecoming.Coming,thisisbecausethepumpkinvinehastheinstincttobemasculineandfeminine.
Forthewaterchestnutgrowingonthesurfaceofthelakeandpond,ifthewaterchestnutplate"sinks",therewillbewindandraininthesky.Thisisbecausebeforetheonsetofrainydays,thetemperaturerisesandtheairpressuredrops,thesedimentsatthebottomofthelakesandpondsarefermented,thegeneratedbiogasescapes,blisterscontinuetoemergefromthewater,andthesludgeanddebrisfromthebottomriseandsticktotheleavesofthewaterchestnut.Up,theweightofthewaterchestnutplateincreasesandsinks.
Приложение и развитие на прогноза за времето
Бизнес с прогноза за времето
Weatherforecastbusinessisdevelopingtowardshighertemporalandspatialresolution,perfectForecastservicesarealwaysbasedonprovidinguserswithhigheraccuracyandmoreadvancedforecastinformation.Therefore,thedevelopmentofanumericalforecastmodelsystemwithhighertemporalandspatialresolutionandlongerforecasttimelinessisalwaysthecoretaskofthedevelopmentofweatherforecasttechnology.,Statisticalpost-processingtechnologybasedonnumericalreportingmodelproducts,interpretationapplicationtechnologycombinedwiththeoccurrenceanddevelopmentofdisastrousweather,anddigitalforecasttechnologytomeetvariousneedsareinevitablerequirementsforthemoderndevelopmentofweatherservices.
Inthefuture,thedigitalforecastsystemwillfurtherdevelopgrid-basedobjectiveforecastmethods,improvethetemporalandspatialrefinementofdigitalforecastproducts,thediversificationofforecastelements,andforecastaccuracy.Onthisbasis,theestablishmentofdisastrousweatherandforecastTheall-element,multi-time-effect,andmulti-timeproductsystemofhigh-impactweatherenhancespublicandprofessionalmeteorologicalproductsupport;enhancestheintelligentandcollaborativeforecastbusinesscapabilitiesofthedigitalforecastbusinessplatform,andenhancestheautomaticweatherscaleandmesoscalesystemRecognitionfunction,improvedgraphicalinteractivecorrectionofgridelementforecasts,supportformulti-levelcollaborativehigh-temporal-spatialresolutiondigitalforecastingbusinessprocesses,andrealizenational,provincial,andcounty-levelintelligentdigitalforecastguidance,feedback,coordination,andproductionAndrelease.
Inthecentury,nationaldisasterpreventionandmitigation,protectionofsocialandeconomicdevelopment,andpeople’swell-beinghaveputforwardhigherdemandsonmeteorologicalservices,anddevelopedweatherforecastingtechnologiesandproductsfeaturing"digitalizationandrefinement".Thesystemisaninevitablerequirementtorealizethemodernizationofweatherbusiness.Italsoputsforwardhigherrequirementsforthedevelopmentofdisciplinetheoryandbreakthroughsinkeytechnologies.Standingonanewlevelofadvancementinweatherforecastingtechnology,focusingonthefrontiersofinternationalmeteorologicaltechnologydevelopment,strivingtoactivelyexploreandinnovateintherapidupdateandassimilationofmulti-sourcedataandforecastingtechnology,ensembleforecastingsystemsofdifferentscales,anddigitalforecastingtechnologies,istopromoteweatherTheonlywayfornewchangesandadvancementsinforecastingtechnology.
Военна метеорологична технологична работа
Newmilitaryhigh-altitudedetectionequipment,fieldweatherinstruments,militarygroundmulti-elementmeteorologicaltelemetryequipment,automaticweatherstations,etc.,forthemilitaryMeteorologicalobservationsprovidenewmeanstograduallydevelopthemilitary'smeteorologicalobservationanddetectionworkfromtraditionalmanualoperationstomodernautomatedremotesensingandremotesensing;digitalweatherradar,Dopplerweatherradarandadvancedlightningdetectionequipmenthavebeensuccessfullydevelopedandapplied,Tofurtherimprovetheabilitytomonitordangerousweatherandcatastrophicweather;theopeningofsatelliteTVweatherdatabroadcastingnetworksandpublicdatanetworks,andtheestablishmentofsatellitecommunicationnetworksinkeyareashavecausedmajorchangesinthetechnicalmeansofmeteorologicalcommunication.Thetransmissionspeed,coverage,timelinessandqualityhavebeensignificantlyimproved;theapplicationofbusinessautomationsystemssuchasweatherobservationdataprocessing,weathermapautomaticanalysisanddrawing,satellitecloudmapautomaticreceptionandprocessing,weatherdatabase,etc.,hassignificantlyenhancedthemeteorologicalinformationanalysisandprocessingcapabilities;usingtheGalaxy1.Numericalweatherforecastingbysupercomputersandadvancedlong-termweatherforecastingsystemshavesignificantlyimprovedthelevelofclimatepredictionandsignificantlyacceleratedthedigitizationprocessofweatherforecastingandweathersupport;newmobileweathersupportequipmentforfieldoperationsplaysanimportantroleinmajormilitaryexercisesTheconstructionofmilitarymeteorologicaldisciplinesandthefruitfulresultsofthetheoreticalresearchonmeteorologicalsupportforhigh-techlocalwarshaveprovidedpowerfulguidanceforthedevelopmentofmilitarymeteorologicalundertakingsandpromotedtheimprovementofmilitarymeteorologicalsupportcapabilities.
Превенция и смекчаване на бедствия в селското стопанство
Theadvancementofinformationtechnology,theapplicationofnewtypesofmeteorologicalequipment,andtheimprovementofthetechnologyofweatherforecastersareallcontinuouslyimprovingweatherforecasting.Degreeofaccuracy.Therefore,long-termforecastsmustbeusedtoresistnaturaldisasterssuchasdrought,floods,lowtemperatureandcolddamage,andfrost.Long-termclimateforecastscanpredictthemeteorologicalchangesthatoccurwithinacertainperiodoftime,suchaswhentherewillbelowtemperature,whentherewillbedrought,whenwhentheremaybefloods,andwhenwhenthereisfrost,soyoucantaketargetedmeasuresbasedontheforecastTakeprevention.Forexample,waterconservancyprojectscanbebuiltinresponsetodroughtsandfloods,sothattheabilityoffarmlandtodrainwaterlogginganddroughtresistancecanbeenhanced.Plantingtrees,returningfarmlandtograssland,andreturningfarmlandtoforestswillchangetheregionalclimateandreducetheincidenceofsevereweather.Inaddition,long-termforecastscanprovideadvanceguidanceforagriculturalproductionplanning.Infarming,plantvarieties,plantingtime,plantingstructure,etc.areselectedaccordingtoclimaticcharacteristics.Long-termforecastscannotonlygivepeopletimetopreventdisastersinadvance,butalsomakereasonableuseofthecharacteristicsofweatherchangestoselectplantingtypesandincreaseagriculturalproductivity.
TheapplicationofthenewDopplerweatherradartechnologytoagriculturalweatherforecastshassignificantlyimprovedtheaccuracyofshort-termforecastsandshort-termforecasts.Throughthisradarmonitoringtechnology,itispossibletomonitorthechangesandmovingdirectionsofsmallandmedium-scalestrongconvectiveweatherinrealtime,ensuretheaccuracyofweatherforecasts,andreduceagriculturaldisasters.Moreover,thisweatherforecasttechnologycanalsobeappliedtootherareasoflife,suchasmunicipaltransportation,emergencycommandcenters,agriculture,wateraffairs,etc.,toformanearlywarninglinkagemechanism.Short-term,near-termweatherforecastscanbeusedtounderstandtheweatherinthearea.Ifthereisadrought,anti-aircraftartilleryandrocketscanbeusedtoartificiallyaffecttheweatherforartificialprecipitation.Ifhailweatheroccurs,humaninterventioncanalsobeusedtopreventhail.Atpresent,animportantmeasureforeffectivedisasterpreventionandmitigationinagriculturalproductionisartificialinfluence,andshort-termandnear-termweatherforecastwarningsprovideitwithmeteorologicalinformation,combinedwithreal-timeradarmonitoring,andartificialinfluencetochangeregionalweathertoachievedroughtresistance,hailprevention,andPurposessuchasincreasingrainfall.Forexample,in2010,LiuzhouCitysufferedfromseverelylowrainfall,allcropsinthecitysufferedfromdrought,reservoirswereinsufficientlystored,andtheforestfirepreventionsituationwasalsosevere.Inresponsetoseveredrought,LiuzhouCityimplementedartificialweatherinfluencingoperations,comparedwithnon-operatingareas.Increasedby20mm,theeffectofincreasingrainfallreached20%,completelyeliminatingtheagriculturaldrought.Practicehasprovedthattheimpactofmanualoperationsonthebasisofshort-termandnear-termweatherforecastscanreduceoreliminateagriculturaldisasters.