Domov Technika Demografický

Demografický



Historicaldevelopment

Demographicstatisticsareproducedanddevelopedtomeettheneedsofsocialdevelopmentandnationalmanagement.Itistheearlieststatisticsthatappearedinhumansociety.In4500BC,Babylonhadsurveyedpopulationitems;Chinahadpopulationandlandstatisticsin2100BCduringtheXiaYuera;aftertheZhouDynasty,therewasacensussysteminalldynasties;therewasalsoapopulationsurveysystemin2A.D.Theofficialpopulationrecordsofthewholecountryandsub-regionswererecorded.Theslavesocietyandfeudalsocietyconductedpopulationsurveysandregistrationstomeettheneedsoftherulingclassfortaxation,servitude,andconscription.Themethodsandcontentofstatisticswererelativelysimple;intheHanDynasty,theEmperorWureignedThefirstdemographicstatisticsinhumanhistory;inacapitalistsociety,demographicstatisticshavedevelopedgreatly.Inadditiontostatisticsonpopulationandgender,age,andethnicity,therearestatisticsonemploymentandunemployment,industryandoccupation,educationlevel,religiousbeliefs,maritalstatus,fertility,andotherstatistics.ThestatisticalcontentisbecomingmoreabundantandthedemographicsystemIthasbecomemorecomplete,andhasgraduallyestablishedanddevelopedamoderncensussystem,andpopulationstatisticshavebecomemoreandmoresystematicandcomplete.Inasocialistsociety,economicdevelopmentandpopulationdevelopmentareincludedinthenationalplan.Demographicstatisticsprovideservicesforcompilingnationaleconomicandsocialdevelopmentplans,formulatingpopulationpolicies,implementingfamilyplanning,compilingandinspectingpopulationplans,andfornationaladministrationandpopulationresearch.provideinformation.

Relatedcalculationformulas

1.Birthratereferstotheratioofthenumberofbirthstotheaveragepopulationinacertainplaceinoneyear.Itisgenerallyexpressedinthousands,indicatingthenumberofbirthsperthousandofthepopulationinayear.Thecalculationformulais:

Porodnost=počet narození za rok ÷ roční průměrná populace × 1000‰

2.Fertilityrateisarelativeindicatorreflectingthefertilityintensityofwomenofchildbearingage.Itisdifferentfromthebirthrate,whichindicatestheproportionalrelationshipbetweenthenumberofbirthsandthetotalpopulation.Thebirthrateisbasedonthetotalpopulationasthebasicdataforcomparison,butinfactonlywomenofchildbearingagehavetheabilitytohavechildren(exceptforinfertility).Therefore,thenumberofbirthsisonlydirectlydependentonthenumberofwomenofchildbearingage.Statisticsandresearchonthefertilityrateofwomenofchildbearingageareofgreatsignificanceforanalyzingthecausesofchangesinthebirthrate,studyingthedevelopmenttrendofpopulationreproduction,andpredictingthefuturedevelopmentofpopulation.

Thecalculationoffertilityratecanbebasedonthespecificrequirementsofdemographicstatistics,usingcalculationmethodssuchasgeneralfertilityrate,fertilityrateforwomenbyage,cumulativefertilityrate,lifetimefertilityrate,andtotalfertilityrate.

3.Thetotalfertilityratereferstotheage-specificfertilityrateforwomenofchildbearingageinacertainyear(oraspecificgroup).Theaveragenumberofchildrenborn.Thetotalfertilityrateisafertilityrateindexthattakesacertainyearasa"cross-section",anditisalsoa"forward-lookingindex".Itischaracterizedbylookingforwardandhasasignalnature.Thecalculationmethodis:

Totalfertilityrate=thesumofthefertilityratesofwomenofallages

4.MortalityisanindicationofthedeathintensityofthepopulationinacertainareainacertainperiodoftimeRelativeindicators.Itisusuallycalculatedwiththeyearastheunitoftime.Thecalculationformulais:

Úmrtnost = počet úmrtí za rok ÷ průměrná populace za rok × 1 000 ‰

5.Infantmortalityratereferstothenumberofinfantdeathsbetween0-12monthsTheratioofthenumberofbabiesbornbetween0-12monthsoldisgenerallyexpressedinthousandths.Sincesomeofthedeathsofbabiesfrom0-12monthswerebornthisyearandsomewereborninthepreviousyear,thebirthdensityofthepopulationvariesgreatlyduringtheyear,anditisnotconvenienttocalculatetheannualaverage.Whencalculatinginfantmortality,thedenominatorisusuallythesumof1/3ofthenumberofbirthsinthepreviousyearand2/3ofthenumberofbirthsinthisyear.Thecalculationformulais:

Úmrtnost kojenců = počet lidí, kteří letos zemřeli do jednoho roku ÷ (1/3počet narozených v předchozím roce + 2/3 počet narození v roce) × 1000‰

6.Thenaturalgrowthratereferstotheratioofthenaturalgrowthofthepopulationinacertainperiodtotheaveragetotalnumberofpeopleintheregionduringtheperiod.Theannualnaturalgrowthrateiscommonlyused,usuallyexpressedinthousandths,referredtoastheself-increasingrate.Thecalculationformulais:

Přirozená míra růstu = roční číslo přirozeného růstu ÷ roční průměr celkový počet obyvatel za rok × 1 000 ‰

7.Familyplanningratereferstoacertainperiodinacertainarea(usuallyoneYears)Theratioofthenumberoflivebirthsbornincompliancewiththerequirementsoffamilyplanningtothetotalnumberoflivebirthsinthesametimeperiod,expressedasapercentage.Thecalculationformulais:

Míra plánování rodiny=počet plánovaných porodů za určitý rok ÷ celkový počet porodů ve stejném období × 100 %.

8.BirthcontrolrateisthenumberofwomenofchildbearingagewhoimplementbirthcontrolandcontraceptivemeasuresasapercentageoftheirchildbearingageTheproportionofwomen.Thecalculationformulaisasfollows:

Birthcontrolrate=numberofwomenimplementingbirthcontrolandcontraceptivemeasures÷numberofwomenofchildbearingage×100%

Regardlessofwhethertheimplementedmeasuresaremenorwomen,aslongasthebirthcontrolandcontraceptivemeasuresareimplemented,Allaccordingtothestatisticsofthewoman.Thebirthcontrolmeasurestakenbysomecouplesofchildbearingagehavefailed,sotheyshouldbesubtractedfromthenumberofmarriedwomenofchildbearingagewhohaveimplementedbirthcontrolmeasures.Ifbirthcontrolmeasuresaretakenagain,theyshouldbeincludedinanewbirthcontrolmeasure.

9.Therateofreceivingcertificatesforonly-childrenreferstotheratioofthenumberofcertificatesforonly-childrenundertheageof14whoseparentshaveappliedfornolongergivingbirthtothetotalnumberofmarriedwomenofchildbearingage.Thecalculationformulais:

Postup získání jednoho certifikátu dítěte=počet lidí, kteří obdrželi certifikát pro dítě ÷celkový počet vdaných žen v úrodném věku × 100 %

10.ThegenderratioofthepopulationismaleorTheratioofwomenisusuallyexpressedastheratioof100womentohowmanymen.Thecalculationformulais:

Poměr pohlaví=Počet mužů÷Počet mužů × 100 %

11.Asadynamicprocess,populationchangesatalltimes.ThischangeinChinaisquitelarge,andsometimesforstatisticalpurposes(suchascalculatingbirthrate,deathrate,percapitaoutput,percapitaoutputvalue,etc.),itisnecessarytousetheannualaveragepopulationasanindicator.Thisindicatorreflectstheaveragenumberofsurvivorsatvariouspointsintheyear.

Generallycalculatetheannualaveragepopulation,youcanusetheformulaofthepopulationatthebeginningoftheyearplusthepopulationattheendoftheyeardividedby2,namely:

Průměrný roční počet obyvatel=(počet obyvatel na začátku roku+na konci rokuPočet obyvatel)÷2

Statistické ukazatele

Populace

PopulationreferstoacertainpointintimeandwithinacertainareaThesumoflivingindividuals.

Theyear-endpopulationinannualstatisticsreferstothepopulationat24:00onDecember31eachyear.ThetotalpopulationofthecountryintheannualstatisticsdoesnotincludethenumberofcompatriotsfromTaiwanProvince,HongKongandMacao,andoverseasChinese.

Figure1showstheglobaldemographics,whileFigure2showsthedemographicsbasedongender.

Celkový počet obyvatel měst a měst a celkový počet obyvatel vesnic

Therearetwodefinitionsoftotalpopulationofcitiesandtownsandtotalpopulationofvillages:

(1)První kalibr (podle hlavního administrativního systému):

Citypopulation:theentirepopulationintheareaunderthejurisdictionofthecity(includingtownsunderthejurisdictionofthecity,excludingdistrictsandcountiesunderthejurisdictionofthecity);

Populace města: celkový počet obyvatel měst spravovaných krajem (kromě městských měst);

Populace hrabství:obyvatelstvo spravované hrabstvím.

(2)Druhý kalibr (děleno stálou populací):

Citypopulation:thepopulationofacitywithdistrictsandthepopulationofstreetsunderthejurisdictionofacitywithoutdistricts;

Townpopulation:thepopulationofresidentscommitteesintownsunderthejurisdictionofcitieswithoutdistrictsandthepopulationofresidentscommitteesintownsunderthejurisdictionofcounties;

Populace okresu: všechny populace kromě výše uvedených dvou populací.

Amongthem,thedatafrom1952to1980arethedataofthefirstcaliber,andthedataafter1982arethedataofthesecondcaliber.

Porodnost

Poměr porodnosti (také známý jako hrubá porodnost) se vztahuje k průměrnému počtu narozených na 1 000 lidí v určitém časovém období (obvykle za rok), obecně vyjádřený v procentech.Výpočetní vzorec:

Porodnost=roční početnarození/ročníprůměrné číslo×1000‰

Amongthem,thenumberofbirthsreferstolivebirths,thatis,whenthefetusisseparatedfromthemother(regardlessofthenumberofmonthsofpregnancy),Havehadbreathingorotherlifephenomena.Theannualaveragepopulationreferstotheaverageofthepopulationatthebeginningandtheendoftheyear,anditcanalsobereplacedbythemid-yearpopulation.

Úmrtnost

Mortality(alsoknownascrudemortality)referstothenumberofdeathsinacertainareaduringacertainperiod(usuallyayear)andTheratiooftheaveragenumberofpeopleinthesameperiod(orthenumberofpeopleintheperiod)isgenerallyexpressedinperthousand.Thecalculationformulais:

Úmrtnost=roční počet úmrtí/průměrný roční počet×1000‰

Thenaturalpopulationgrowthratereferstothenaturalincreaseinpopulationinacertainperiod(usuallyayear)Theratioof(thenumberofbirthsminusthenumberofdeaths)totheaveragenumberofpeopleintheperiod(orthenumberofpeopleintheperiod)isgenerallyexpressedinthousandths.Thecalculationformulais:

Přirozený přírůstek populace = (počet letošních narození – počet úmrtí v tomto roce)/roční průměrný počet × 1 000 ‰ = porodnost – úmrtnost populace

Zaměstnaná populace

Employedpopulation(alsoknownasemployedpopulation)referstothepopulationwhoare15yearsoldandabovewhoengageincertainsociallaborandobtainlaborremunerationoroperatingincome.

Nezaměstnaná populace

Theunemployedpopulationreferstothosewhoarenotengagedinsociallaboramongthepopulationaged15andover,includingschoolstudents,Non-employedpopulationsuchashouseholdchores,waitingforfurthereducation,waitingforemploymentintowns,retired,retired,andincapacitated.

Faktor celkové zátěže

Thetotalburdenfactorreferstothedifferencebetweenthedependentpopulation(peopleaged0-14andover65)andthepopulationaged15-64Proportion.Thecalculationformulais:

Totalburdencoefficient=Závislá populace/Věk populace 15–64 × 100 %

Koeficient zatížení a stáří

Theburdenofoldagecoefficientreferstotheratiooftheelderlypopulation(populationover65)tothepopulationaged15-64.Thecalculationformulais:

Koeficient zatížení skládání=Starší populace/Populace 15–64letých × 100 %

Koeficient zátěže mládeže

Adolescentburdencoefficientreferstotheratioofadolescentstothepopulationaged15-64.Thecalculationformulais:

Adolescentburdencoeficient=dětská populace/15~64letá populace × 100 %

Indicators

DemographicsisaquantitativestudyofpopulationThecurrentstatus,changesanddevelopmenttrendsofvariousbiologicalcharacteristics(suchasage,gendercomposition)andsocialcharacteristics(suchasoccupation,culturalandeconomicstatusdistribution,etc.).Itisthemaincornerstonefordeterminingthenationalpopulationpolicy,anditisalsoanimportantbasisforvariousdepartmentsofthenationaleconomytoformulateplans,determinedeployment,andadjustpolicies.Thevariouscharacteristicsofthepopulationaredifferent,andthespectrumofdiseasesanddeathsarealsodifferent.Forexample,thespectrumofdiseasesanddeathsindevelopedcountriesareoftendominatedbyheartandcerebrovasculardiseasesandcancer,whilethespectrumofdiseasesanddeathsindevelopingcountriesaremainlybasedontherespiratorysystem.Mainlydiseasesandinfectiousdiseases.Oneoftheimportantreasonsforthisdifferenceisthattheagecompositionandculturalandeconomicdistributionofthepopulationofthesetwotypesofcountriesaredifferent.Thisalsoshowsthatthepopulationswithdifferentcharacteristicshavedifferentneedsforhealthcare.Inaddition,bydynamicallyobservingthedemographicindicatorsofacountryorregion,orcomparingthedemographicindicatorsofdifferentregionsandcountries,youcanevaluatethequalityofhealthcareinacountryorregion.Therefore,demographicstatisticsisnotonlyanindispensablebasisforformulatinghealthcarepolicies,butalsoanobjectiveindicatorforevaluatingthequalityofhealthwork.Demographicindicatorsareusuallydividedintotwocategories,namelystaticindicatorsanddynamicindicators.Figure3showsthedemographicmonitoringpoints.

Statický index

Statický index nebo index časových bodů. Odráží situaci v určitém bodě v čase. Je třeba vzít v úvahu průřezová, statická okamžitá data z neustále se měnícího procesu, jako je populace, věk, pohlaví, etnická příslušnost atd. populace v určitém čase v určitém čase, v každém měsíci a v některých populacích jsou určité. uprostřed.

1.Sexratio:reflectstheratiobetweenmenandwomeninthepopulation.Itisusuallyexpressedintermsofhowmanymenthereareforevery100womeninthepopulation.Thatis,inadditiontothesexratioofthetotalpopulation,therearesexratiosofdifferentages.Suchasbirthsexratio,infantsexratioandsoon.Thesexratioofthepopulationhasitsownrules.Atbirth,therearegenerallymorementhanwomen,andthebirthsexratioisgenerallyintherangeof103to107.Sincethedeathrateofmenisusuallyhigherthanthatofwomen,thesexratioiscloseto100intheyoungandmiddleages.Inoldage,therearemorewomenthanmen,sothesexratioismostlybelow100.Certainsocialfactorsoftenleadtosexualimbalance.Forexample,warcancausealargenumberofdeathsofmalecitizensandcauseademographicimbalance(forexample,manycountrieshadmorewomenthanmenduringtheSecondWorldWar);insomesocietieswithstrongfeudalcolors,femaleinfantabuseoftenoccurred.Thisleadstoarelativelyhighbirthrate.Thelawofsexratioisonlyreliablewhenalargenumberofstatisticsareused.

2.Pyramid:Theageandgenderstructureofthepopulationcanberepresentedbypyramidgraphics.Thepopulationpyramidhasacentralaxis,andthescaleonitrepresentsage.Itiscustomarytogroupby1or5yearsold,butyoucangroupbyanyageintervalasneeded,butthegroupsmustbeequidistant;theleftsideofthecentralaxisofthepyramidrepresentsthemalepopulation,andtherightrepresentsthepopulation.Thefemalepopulationcanbeexpressedinabsolutenumbersorpercentages.

Dynamicindicators

Thistypeofindicatorreflectsthenaturalorsocialchangesofthepopulationwithinacertainperiodoftime,suchasbirths,deaths,andmigrationinacertainyear.ItreflectsThetotalsituationofacertaineventcontinuouslyoccurringinacertainperiod,ratherthanthesituationatapointintime,iscalledapopulationdynamicsindexoraperiodindex.Itcanalsoincludethefollowingindicators.

1.Generalbirthrate:referstothenumberofbirthsper1000populationinacertainperiod(usually1year),thatis,itcanroughlyindicatethebirthlevelofacountryorregion.The"population"inthedenominatorusuallyusesthepopulationinthemiddleoftheyear(at24:00onJune30),ortheaverageofthepopulationattheendofthisyearandthepopulationattheendoflastyear(ie,theaveragepopulation).Thebirthrateisaffectedbytheageandsexcompositionofthepopulation.Forexample,whentheproportionofpeopleofchildbearingage(especiallywomen)inthepopulationisrelativelylarge,thebirthratemustberelativelyhigh.

2.Generalmortality:referstothenumberofdeathsper1,000populationinacertainperiodoftime,thatis,itcanroughlyreflectthedeathlevelofacountryorregion.Butlikethebirthrate,itismoreaffectedbytheagecompositionofthepopulation.Forexample,whentheproportionoftheelderlyinthepopulationislarge,themortalityrateisoftenhigh.Therefore,insomecountrieswithmoredevelopedeconomies,medicalandhealthcare,thegeneralmortalityrateishigherthaninsomedevelopingcountries.

3.Naturalrateofincrease:thedifferencebetweentheannualaveragebirthrateandtheordinarydeathrate.

Růst=normální porodnost-úmrtnost

Itrepresentstheincreaseinthenumberofpeopleper1,000populationinacertainyear.

4.Fertilityrate:thenumberoflivebirths(orbirths)per1,000womenofchildbearingageinacertainyear.Becauseitisnotaffectedbytheageandgendercompositionofthepopulation,itcanbetterreflectthefertilitylevelofacountryorregion.ThegeneralfertilityrateinChinaisaround50‰.

5.Age-specificfertilityrate:fertilityratecanalsobecalculatedaccordingtodifferentagegroups,anditisgenerallycustomarytouse5yearsasanagegrouptocalculate,suchastotalfertilityrate.Theaveragenumberofchildrenborntoevery1,000womenofchildbearingageinthepopulationaftertheirentirechildbearingperiod(15to44yearsold).Thecalculationofthetotalfertilityratevariesdependingontheagegroup.Whengroupingintogroupsofeachage,thesumofage-specificfertilityratesisthetotalfertilityrate;whengroupingintoa5-year-oldagegroup,thesumofage-specificfertilityratesmultiplyingby5isthetotalfertilityrate.China'scurrenttotalfertilityrateisabout2600‰(or2.6).

6.Age-specificmortalityrate:Becausethegeneralmortalityrateisgreatlyaffectedbytheagecompositionofthepopulation,itissometimesnecessarytocalculatetheage-specificmortalityratebyagegroup.Forexample,theage-specificmortalityratecanreflectthelevelofdeathmoreaccuratelythantheordinarymortalityrate.

7.Infantmortalityrate:Infantreferstothechildhoodperiodfrombirthtolessthan12months.Duringthisperiod,theinfant’sresistancetotheoutsideworldisverylowanditisveryeasytodie.Therefore,theinfantmortalityrateisoftenItisasensitiveindicatortomeasuretheculturalandhealthlevelofacountry

8.Maternalmortalityrate.Maternaldeathreferstothedeathofawomanduetoreasonsrelatedtopregnancyandchildbirth,andthedeathoccurredwithin42daysafterthestartofpregnancy.Thecausesofmaternaldeathcanbedividedintodirectobstetriccauses(suchashemorrhage,birthinjury,postpartuminfection,etc.)andindirectcauses(pregnancy,tuberculosis,heartdisease,etc.,deathcausedbythedeteriorationoftheconditionduringpregnancyandchildbirth).Itreflectsthelevelofwomen'shealthcareinacountryorregion.ThecurrentmaternalmortalityrateinChinaisaround50,000.Thedenominatorintheformulashouldtheoreticallyuse"thenumberofpregnantwomeninacertainyear",butthisnumberisdifficulttoobtain(manypeoplehaveundergoneartificialabortionorspontaneousabortionafterpregnancy,andhavenotreportedorregistered),sogenerallyuseanapproximatevalue──livebirthsinacertainyearThetotalnumberisusedinstead.

Metody pro jednotlivé země

Populace různých zemí světa jsou různé a statistické metody jsou velmi rozdílné.

SingaporedistributesquestionnairesontheInternettoobtainpopulationnumbersfromfeedback.MauritaniausestheGlobalPositioningSystemtogivepointstothenomadsscatteredinthedesert.Ireland,fearingthatthefoot-and-mouthdiseasewouldaffectthepopulation,simplypostponedtheplannednationalcensus.

TheUnitedNations1995-2005globaldemographiccampaignisunderway.Fromthe7thtothe10thofthismonth,statisticiansfrom55countries,whichaccountforthree-quartersoftheworld’spopulation,gatheredinNewYorktoparticipateinaforumoncensusmethods.Inordertocooperatewiththisforum,theUnitedNationsconductedasurveyonthewaysinwhichthepopulationiscountedinvariouscountries.Thesurveyshowsthatdevelopingcountriesareincreasinglyusinghigh-techmethodsindemographicwork.

Inthe2000Brazilcensus,handheldcomputersandmobilephonesprovidedstatisticianswithreal-timedata.EvenpeopleontheAmazonRivercanregister.ThecensusofficerAliciaBerkovicsaidproudly,"Wecanfindproblemsintimeandimprovethemimmediately."

InIndia,withapopulationof100million,600,000ruralpeoplehavelearnedaboutthesignificanceofthecensusthroughtelevisionprograms.InMarch,afterthreeweeksofdataanalysisandprocessing,thecomputerobtainedthepopulationofthecountry.TheIndianCensusCommissionerBanteaisstillnotsatisfied.HesaidthatthecomputerinNewYorkcompletedtheentireprocessinonly10minutes.

Turkeyreliesonthearmytosetuproadblocksonthestreetstoensurethateveryoneiscounted.Andsomecountrieshavetoadoptencouragement.Forexample,inKyrgyzstan,peoplewhoparticipateinthecensuscandrawalottery,andthegrandprizeisafreeapartment.

Ofcourse,thedemographicsofmostcountriesaresupportedbythepeople.HassanAbribud,directorofthePalestinianBureauofStatistics,saidthatwhenPalestineconducteditsfirstcensusin1997,thepeopleofthewholecountrywereproudofbeingabletoparticipateinthesurvey.InGaza,only18peopledidnotparticipateintheinvestigation.

However,politicssometimesaffectsdemographics.TheUNpopulationexpertsaidthatbecauseSyriaisstationedinLebanon,DamascusisreluctanttoreleasethenumberofpeopleworkingandlivinginLebanon.

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