Introduction
[weatherforecast]Pre-estimationandforecastofweatherchangesinacertainperiodinthefuture.Weatherforecastingisanimportantmeansformeteorologicalworktoservethenationaleconomyandnationaldefenseconstruction.Weatherforecastsaredividedintoforecastranges,includingregionalweatherforecastsandlocalweatherforecasts.Accordingtotheneedsofserviceobjects,therearedailypublicweatherforecastsandprofessionalweatherforecasts.Accordingtothelengthoftime,thereareshort-term,medium-termandlong-termweatherforecasts.TheMeteorologicalObservatorypublishesweatherforecastsinatimelyandaccuratemannerthroughvariouschannels,especiallydisastrousweatherforecasts,whichplayanimportantroleinprotectingpeople'slivesandpropertyandpromotingeconomicdevelopment.Thetechnologyofweatherforecastingdevelopedrapidlywiththedevelopmentoftelegraph.Bytheearly1950s,weatherforecastshadbeenbasedonsynopticprinciples.Withthedevelopmentofcomputingtechnologyanddetectiontechnology,inadditiontotheconventionalweatherchartmethodcombinedwithmathematicalstatisticstomakeforecasts,meteorologicalradarandsatellitedetectiondataareappliedtotheforecastingbusiness,andnumericalforecastingmethodshavebeendevelopedatthesametime.Thismethodpredictsthephysicalprocessoftheatmospherebydeterminingtheprinciplesofconservationofatmosphericmass,energyandmomentum,andsignificantlyimprovesthequalityofweatherforecasts,therebypromotingtheobjectivequantificationofweatherforecasts.
Starověké předpovědi
Předpovědi počasí pro starověké Číňany
Podle "teorie osudu" se východ slunce, západ slunce a tok přílivového pásma opakují přirozené cykly..Lidé mohou vytvářet přesnější předpovědi pro tyto periodické změny a vidět. V tuto chvíli lidé očekávají, že budou znát své pravidelnosti předem.
Sinceancienttimes,Chineseintellectualshavepaidattentiontothepredictionofastronomy,earthquakeandmeteorology.TheancientthinkerDongZhongshuputforwardtheslogan"Quthepeoplestretchouttheruler,andtherulerstretchesoutthesky".Thefirstsentenceistoobeytheemperor.ThesecondsentenceisfortheemperortolistentoGod'swill.Providencerestrictedtheemperor'sactions.Mostoftheseprovidencescomefromtheignoranceofthesky(suchassolareclipses)andtheground(suchasearthquakes),andtheunpredictabilityofextremeweatherandabnormalclimates,suchaslightning,drought,floods,fires,andlocustdisasters.Ignoranceofnaturaldisasters(theemperor)andthelower(subjects)openedthedoorforthesubjectstoexpresstheiropinions.Intheearlydays,astronomyandmeteorologywerenotseparated.Bothastronomyandmeteorologymustbeobservedandforecasted.Threethousandyearsago,mycountry’sOracleincludedrecordsoftheactualweather,includingwind,clouds,rainbows,rain,snow,frost,clouds,tornadoes,andthunderstorms.Afteralargenumberofweathereventshavebeenrecordedinwriting,someintellectualsfinallyhaveanunderstandingoftheclimate.Inancientmycountry,observingastronomyandweather,formulatingcalendars,understandingandpredictingclimate,theclearestusewastoarrangeagriculturalproduction,sacrificesandotheractivities.Theinscriptionsalsoreflectthatpeoplealreadyhaverequirementsforpredictingweatherconditions,whichareallinlinewiththeneedsofagriculturalproductionatthattime.AsfarastheSpringandAutumnPeriod,theancientssetfoursolarterms:Mid-Spring,Mid-Summer,Mid-AutumnandMid-Winter.Continuousimprovementandperfectioninthefuture,bytheQinandHanDynasties,thetwenty-foursolartermshavebeenfullyestablished.
WeatherforecastforancientWesterners
Weatherforecastisanappliedscience.Theachievementsofscienceoriginatefromthought.Around340BC,theancientGreekphilosopher,scientistandeducatorAristotle(384BCto322BC)wrotetheworld'searliestmonographonmeteorology,"GeneralMeteorology".Thebookdescribesthecausesanddistributionofhurricanes,foehnwindsandwinds,atmosphericlightpatternssuchashalos,rainbows,andthunderandlightning,theformationofclouds,rain,hailandhaze,andclimatechange.Aristotlesystematicallysortedoutallthepreviousmeteorologicalthoughtsandexperiences,andputforwardhisowninsightsandtheoriesonvariousweatherphenomena,makingitasystematicscience—ancientmeteorology,namelyTheideologicalbasisofancientweatherforecasting.Thedescriptionoflocalweatherobservationsatthattimedeterminedthattheweatherforecastwasalsolocal.Aristotledividedthelocalskyintotwoupperandlowerparts:oneisthecelestialdomain-theareaoutsidethemoon'sorbit,andtheotheristhearea-therangefromthemoon'sorbittotheground.Theformeristhescopeofastronomyobservationandresearch,whiletheatmosphericphenomenaoccurringinthelatterbelongtotheresearchobjectofmeteorology.Hebelievesthatdryandwarmemissionsconstitutewind,anddampandcoldemissionsconstitutewatervapor,whichisthesourceofrain.Therefore,airisthemediumofwatervaporandwind.Clouds,rain,snow,frost,anddewareallcausedbychangesinairtemperature.Forming.TheauthorityofAristotledominatedwesternmeteorologicaltheoryfortwothousandyears.Beforetheendofthe17thcentury,allwesternmeteorologicalworksandtreatiseswerenotabletoescapetheinfluenceofAristotle'smeteorology.
Developmenthistory
Earlyweatherforecast
Numericalvaluesarethelanguageofscience.Weatherforecastingisinseparablefromthequantitativeobservationofatmosphericmotionbyinstruments.Wecansettheinventionandapplicationofmeteorologicalinstrumentsasthestarttimeofearlyweatherforecasting.
Inthe15thcentury,theWestinventedtheplatenanemometer,whichcanquantitativelymeasurethespeed(energy)ofatmosphericmotionforthefirsttime.Fromthe17thtothe18thcentury,scientistssuccessivelyinventedvariousinstrumentsforquantitativelymeasuringweatherphenomena,markingthebeginningofanewperiodofdevelopmentforthedetectionmethodsofmeteorologicalscienceresearch.BritishphysicistHooke(1635-1703)inventedthehygrometer.In1606,Galileoinventedthethermometer.In1639,Galileo'sdiscipleBenedettoCastelliinventedtheraingauge.In1644,Torricelliinventedthebarometer.In1774,Cotteinventedthehygrometer.Inthemiddleofthe18thcentury,peoplebegantoattempthigh-altitudeexploration.In1748,BritishA.Wilsonandothersbegantocarrythermometerswithkitestoobservelow-altitudetemperature.In1752,AmericanscientistB.Franklinusedkitesandothertoolstodetectandstudythepropertiesofelectricchargesinthunderstormclouds.In1783,France'sJ.A.C.Charlieusedhydrogenballoonsforthefirsttimetocarrytemperature,pressureandotherself-recordingmeteorologicalinstrumentstomeasuretemperatureandpressureatvariousaltitudes.Theseearlierhigh-altitudesurveysareusedtomeasurethetemperatureandairpressureatvariousaltitudesandotherelementsforfutureresearchonlargemeteorologicalinstruments.
Withtheinventionofmeteorologicalinstrumentsandtheestablishmentofobservationnetworks,aswellasthedevelopmentoffluiddynamicstheory,itispossibletoestablishatheoreticalsystemforweatherforecasting.In1820,Germany'sH.W.Brandesusedthemeteorologicalobservationdatapublishedinthe"JournaloftheBaladinMeteorologicalSociety"tofillintherecordsofthepressureandwindatthesametimein1783onthemap,makingittheworld'sfirstweathermap.Thispioneeringworkhastakenasolidstepforwardinanalyzingtherelationshipbetweenairpressure,windandweather,andestablishingaconceptualmodeloftheweathersystem.Thebirthoftheweatherchartisasignofmodernmeteorologicaltheoreticalresearchandmodernweatherforecastingpractice.Theinventionofthetelegraphhasprovidedconditionsfortherapidtransmissionofmeteorologicalobservationdataandtheconcentrationofinformationinvariousplaces,makingitpossibletodrawreal-timeweathermaps.In1851,J.GlescheroftheUnitedKingdomusedtelegraphtotransmitdataanddrewinstantaneousweathermapsforpracticalapplications.
Modernweatherforecast
Inthepasthundredyears,somemeteorologicalleadershavemadefulluseofthecombinationoflarge-scalegroundandupperairobservationdataandmathematicalmethods,whichhasstronglypromotedthedevelopmentofweatherforecasttheory.Andtheimprovementoftheweatherforecastservicelevel.OneisthecirculationtheoryandcyclonewavemodeloftheNorwegianschool,andthesecondisthelongwavetheoryoftheChicagoschool,whichhasmadeoutstandingcontributionstothedevelopmentofmeteorologicalsciencerecognizedworldwide.
ThecorefigureoftheNorwegianSchoolisV.Peyknis(1862-1951).Hehasbeenunremittinglytransformingmeteorologyfromrandomobservationaldatacollectionandaccidentalspeculativeforecastingtorigorousscience,andiscommittedtoimprovingtheaccuracyofweatherforecastsandlong-termweatherforecasts.Hiswishwastotransformmeteorologyintoanauthoritativediscipline,andthiswishwasrealizedwhenheworkedattheBergenSchoolofMeteorology.Military,agriculture,aviation,andfisherieshavequicklybecomeindustriesthatrelyonPeyknis’researchresults.Attheendofthe19thcentury,heputforwardarevolutionaryideaofapplyingtheprinciplesoffluidmechanicsandthermodynamicstoatmosphericmotion.Hisimportantachievementsinclude:in1897,hestudiedthecirculationmovementintheatmosphereandintroducedtheconceptofforcetubeforthefirsttime;in1904,heproposedtheconceptofdigitalweatherforecast;in1910,heproposedtodrawstreamlinesontheweathermaptorepresentthehorizontalmovementoftheair.Italsoanalyzestheconvergenceanddivergencezones;in1918,thedifferencebetweencoldandwarmfrontsinalow-pressureweathersystemwasdiscovered,andtheconceptofcoldandwarmfrontswasestablished,andFrontwasthenameoftheinterfacebetweenthecoolingandheatingmasses.
ThereisalsoacorefigureoftheNorwegianschool,cloudphysicistBergeron,whonotonlycontributedtothephysicsofclouds,butalsomadeachievementsintheclassificationofweatherconditions.Hesystematicallysortedoutthevariousdataheobservedandcollected,andin1919proposedthetheoryofthecycloneimprisonmentstage,whichenrichedthecyclonelifehistorymodel.Inhisdoctoraldissertation,healsoproposedconceptssuchasairmassclassification,frontalzone,andfrontogenesis,whichmadeimportantcontributionstoweatheranalysisandforecasting.
ChicagoSchoolbeganbrewinginthe1930s,formedandreacheditspeakinthe1940s,andcontinuedtoprosperinthe1950sand1970s.C.G.Robes(1898-1957),thecorefigureoftheChicagoSchool(orAmericanSchool),discoveredlongwavesonhigh-altitudeweathercharts.In1939,heproposedthelong-wavedynamics,derivedthepotentialvorticityequationfromthis,andfoundedthelong-wavetheory.Inthe1940s,theChicagoSchoolunderhisleadership,includingE.HPalmenandothers,confirmedthestructureandchangesofhigh-altitudewesterlyjetsandlongwaves,aswellastheirrelationshipwithcyclonewavesontheground.RossbyandtheChicagoSchool’smajorcontributiontoweatherforecastingisthe"RosbyWave",alsoknownasthe"AtmosphericLongWave".TheworkoftheChicagoSchoolhasstrengthenedtheconnectionbetweensynopticsandthermodynamicsanddynamics,enrichedthephysicalfoundationofweatheranalysisandforecasting,andprovidedtheoreticalbasisforthestudyoflarge-scaleatmosphericmotion,andpromotedthedevelopmentandapplicationofnumericalweatherprediction.
Modernweatherforecast
Modernweatherforecastismarkedbythegradualreplacementofconventionalweathermapforecastswithmoderndetectiontechnologies(weathersatellitesandweatherradars)andnumericalweatherforecastmodelssupportedbyhigh-speedcomputers.Theapplicationofthesetechnologiesandmethodsinweatherforecastingroughlybeganinthe1950s.
Forecastingmethods
Doublestations
Beforethe17thcentury,peoplemadeweatherproverbsbyobservingthechangesincelestialandphysicalphenomenatopredictthelocalweatherinthefuture.Afterthe17thcentury,meteorologicalobservationinstrumentssuchasthermometersandbarometersappearedoneafteranother,andgroundmeteorologicalstationswereestablishedoneafteranother.Atthistime,weatherforecastsweremainlybasedonchangesinsingle-stationairpressure,temperature,wind,andclouds.
Weathermap
In1851,theUnitedKingdomfirsttransmittedobservationdataviatelegram,drawnitintoagroundweathermap,andmadeweatherforecastsbasedontheweathermap.Sincethe1920s,airmasstheoryandpolarfronttheoryhavebeenappliedtoweatherforecasting.Inthe1930s,theinventionofradiosondes,theemergenceofhigh-altitudeweathermaps,andthewideapplicationoflong-wavetheoryinweatherforecastinghaveadvancedtheanalysisofweatherevolutionfromtwo-dimensionaltothree-dimensional.Inthelate1940s,theapplicationofweatherradarprovidedaneffectivetoolforforecastingprecipitationandsevereweathersuchastyphoons,heavyrains,andseverestorms.
Numericalweatherforecasting
Numericalweatherforecastingusesatmosphericmotionequationstointegrateequationsundercertaininitialandboundaryconditionstoforecastfutureweather.In1921,Richardsonfirsttriedtousenumericalmethodstoforecasttheweather.Becauseofthehugeamountofcalculationwork,heorganizedalotofmanpoweranddesigneddetailedcalculationtablestocomplete.However,theforecastresultswereseriouslyinconsistentwiththeactualatmosphericchanges.Thereasonwasthattheeffectsofhigh-frequencywavesintheatmospherewerenothandledproperly.In1950,Charneyusedtheworld'sfirstcomputerENIACtosuccessfullyproducea24-hournumericalforecastbasedontheatmosphericmotionequationsafterfilteringouthigh-frequencywaves.Withthedevelopmentofcomputertechnology,theadvancementofobservationmethods,andthedeepeningofunderstandingofatmosphericphysicalprocesses,numericalweatherpredictionhasmadegreatprogressandhasbecomethemainmeansofweatherforecasting.Especiallysincethelaunchofmeteorologicalsatellitesinthe1960s,thesatellite'sdetectiondatahavemadeupforthelackofmeteorologicaldatainareassuchasoceans,deserts,polarregions,andplateaus,whichhassignificantlyimprovedthelevelofweatherforecasting.
Forecastmethod
Situationforecast
Itistoforecastthegenerationanddisappearance,movementandintensitychangesofvariousweathersystemsinacertainperiodoftimeinthefuture.Itisthebasisofmeteorologicalelementforecasting.Situationforecastingmethodscanbedividedintotwocategories:oneisnumericalforecastingmethods,thatis,directlyintegratingatmosphericequationsorsimplifiedequations,andforecastingthefuturepressurefield,temperaturefield,andwindfieldbasedontheresults;theotherisWeatherchartmethod.Thelatterhasthefollowingmethods:
1.Metoda empirické extrapolace
alsoknownasthetrendmethod,isbasedonthepastmovementpathandintensitychangetrendofvariousweathersystemsontheweathermaptoinfertheirfuturelocationandintensity.Thismethodiseffectivewhenthereisnosuddenchangeinthemovementandintensityoftheweathersystemorwhenthereisnonewbirthordeathoftheweathersystem;however,whenthereisasuddenchangeorwhenthereisanewbirthordeathoftheweathersystem,theforecastisoftennotinlinewithreality.
2.Metoda podobných situací
Alsoknownasmodelmethod,itistofindsomesimilarweathersituationsfromalargenumberofhistoricalweathermapsandsummarizethemintocertainpatterns.Ifthecurrentweathersituationissimilartotheprevioussituationofacertainmodel,theforecastcanbemadewithreferencetothelaterevolutionofthemodel.Sincesimilarityisalwaysrelative,itisimpossibletobeexactlythesame.Therefore,errorsoftenoccurinthismethod.
3.Metoda statistických údajů
Alsoknownascorrelationmethod,ituseshistoricaldatatocalculatetheoccurrence,developmentandmovementofvariousweathersystemsindifferentseasonsinhistorytoobtaintheiraveragemovingspeedandfindForecastindicators(suchascyclonegeneration,typhoonturningindicators,etc.)forforecasting.Thismethodcannotbeappliedtoexamplesthathavenotappearedinhistoryormovedveryfastandveryslowly.
4.Metoda fyzikální analýzy
Firstly,itanalyzesthephysicalfactorsoftheweathersystem'sgenerationanddisappearance,movementandintensitychanges,andthenmakesweatherforecastsonthisbasis.Thismethodusuallyhasbetterresults.However,whenthesimplificationsandassumptionsoftheequationsofmotionthatreflectthesephysicalfactorsdonotconformtoreality,theyoftencauseforecasterrors,orevendeviatefarfromtheactualsituation.
Theabovefourmethodshavetheirownadvantagesanddisadvantages.Whenusingthem,theyneedtocomplementeachother,learnfromeachother'sstrengthsandmakeupfortheirweaknesses,andconsidercomprehensivelytoobtainbetterresults.
Předpověď prvku
To předpovídá změny teploty, větru, mraků, srážek a jevů počasí v určitém časovém období v budoucnu. Předpověď situace je základem předpovědi prvku. Existuje několik metod pro předpovědi prvku:
1.Metoda empirické prognózy
Basedontheweathermapsituationforecast,accordingtothefuturepositionandintensityoftheweathersystem,forecastthefutureweatherdistribution.Forexample,whenthelowpressuremovesandisstrengthened,itcanbeforecastedthattherewillberainyweatherorheavierprecipitationinthefuture.Theaccuracyofthismethoddependstoalargeextentontheexperienceoftheforecaster,andbecausetheweathersystemandweatherphenomenadonotcorrespondone-to-one,theforecasteffectisnotstableenough.
2.Metody statistické prognózy
Analyzehistoricalweatherdata,seekthecorrelationbetweenchangesinatmosphericconditionsandpreviousmeteorologicalfactors,useregressionequationsandprobabilityprinciplestoscreenforecastfactorsandestablishforecastequations.Gettherequiredforecastvalue.Theeffectofthismethodmainlydependsonthecorrectchoiceoffactors.
3. Dynamická statistika
Thefuturemeteorologicalparameterscalculatedbynumericalforecastingmethodsareusedasforecastfactors,andasetofforecastformulasareobtainedbyregressionequationstomakeelementforecasts.Withtheimprovementofthenumericalmodel,theaccuracyofthismethodmayincreasesteadily.
Proces předpovědi
Moderní předpověď počasí má pět komponent:
1. Shromažďování dat
ThemosttraditionaldataisonthegroundOrdatasuchasairpressure,temperature,windspeed,winddirection,humidity,etc.collectedbyprofessionals,enthusiasts,automaticweatherstationsorbuoysonthesea.TheWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationcoordinatesthetimingofthesedatacollectionsandsetsstandards.Thesemeasurementsaredoneeveryhour(METAR)oreverysixhours(SYNOP).
Datafrommeteorologicalsatellitesisbecomingmoreandmoreimportant.Meteorologicalsatellitescancollectdatafromallovertheworld.Theirvisiblelightphotoscanhelpmeteorologiststoexaminethedevelopmentofclouds.Theirinfrareddatacanbeusedtocollectthetemperatureofthegroundandcloudtops.Bymonitoringthedevelopmentofthecloud,thewindspeedanddirectionattheedgeofthecloudcanbecollected.However,becausetheaccuracyandresolutionofmeteorologicalsatellitesarenotgoodenough,grounddataisstillveryimportant.
2. Asimilace dat
Thedatacollectedintheprocessofdataassimilationiscombinedwiththedigitalmodelusedforforecastingtogeneratemeteorologicalanalysis.Itisthebestestimateoftheatmosphericstate.Itisathree-dimensionalrepresentationoftemperature,humidity,pressure,windspeed,andwinddirection.
3.DataWeather
Calculatethechangesoftheatmosphereovertimeaccordingtotheresultsofphysicsandfluidmechanics.
4.Zpracování výstupu
Theoriginaloutputcalculatedbythemodelgenerallyneedstobeprocessedbeforeitcanbecomeaweatherforecast.Thesetreatmentsincludeusingstatisticalprinciplestoeliminatedeviationsinknownmodels,ormakingadjustmentswithreferencetothecalculationresultsofothermodels.
5.Proces výroby
Accordingtothedataprovidedbyrelevantdepartments,makeachartofthenationalweathersituationonthecomputer(itisthebackgroundpictureoftheweatherforecastprogram);thehoststandsinfrontofabluescreen"Pointandpoint",explaintheweather(howtograspthelocationofeacharea,thehosthasonlyonesecret-rotememorization);thefilmandtelevisioncenterconductsimagesynthesis,replacingthebluescreenwithchartsonthecomputer;thefilmandtelevisioncenterwillcompletetheproductionoftheprogramTransmittedtoCCTV.
Typy předpovědí
Děleno časovým rozsahem, to znamená, že podle délky trvání předpovědi počasí lze rozdělit na:
1.Short-termforecast.Accordingtoradarandsatellitedetectiondata,thelocalstrongstormsystemwillbemonitoredandforecastedforthenext1to6hours.
2.Krátkodobá předpověď.Předpověď počasí na příštích 24 až 48 hodin.
3. Střednědobá předpověď. Předpověď na další 3–15 dní.
4.Dlouhodobá předpověď.Odkaz na předpověďod 1 měsíce do 1 roku.
5. Ultradlouhodobá předpověď. Perioda předpovědi je 1 až 5 let.
6.Klimatický výhled.Více než 10 let.
Statisticalmethodsaremainlyusedtomakeforecastsbasedonthedeviationbetweentheaveragevalueofeachmonth'smeteorologicalelementsandthemulti-yearaveragevalue.Themethodofmakinglong-termforecastsusingnumericalforecastingmethodsisbeingtested,andsomeprogresshasbeenmade.Theforecastperiodof1-5yearsiscalledultra-long-termforecast,andtheforecastof5yearsormorethan10yearsiscalledclimateoutlook.
Accordingtothecoverageareatoforecasttherange,theweatherforecastcanbedividedinto:
1.Large-scaleforecast.Generallyreferstoglobalforecasts,hemisphericforecasts,continentalorcountry-wideforecasts.MainlyproducedbytheWorldMeteorologicalCenter,RegionalMeteorologicalCenterandNationalMeteorologicalCenter.
2.Středněrozsahová předpověď.Často se týká předpovědí provincií (regionů), států a regionů, které jsou vytvářeny provinciálními, městskými nebo státními meteorologickými stanicemi a regionálními meteorologickými stanicemi.
3.Malá předpověď.Například celokrajská předpověď,acityprognóza,předpověď pro celou nádrž,aletiště,přístavní předpověď atd.Tytopředpovědivytvářejímístnímeteorologické stanice.
ForecastService
Howtoprovidetheweatherforecasttotheuserdepartmentsandthepeopleintimeisthecentrallinkoftheforecastservice.Themostextensiveandeffectiveservicemethodsare:newspaperpublication,radiobroadcasting,televisionbroadcasting,weathertelephoneconsultation,etc.Inaddition,italsoprovidesservicestospecializeddepartmentsthroughdedicatedtelephone,telexandwrittenforms.Thespecialradioforweatherforecastisaradiothatcanbeturnedonatanytimetoreceivethecurrentweatherforecastbroadcast.Whensevereweatherisabouttohappen,thespecialweatherbroadcastingstationcanuseasignalofacertainwavelengthtomakethisradioautomaticallystartthecall.Peoplewhofallasleepcanalsobeawakenedbythesignalandhearsevereweatherwarnings,whichprovidesthepossibilitytotakepreventivemeasuresintime.
Aftertheweatherstationhasproducedtheweatherforecast,itwillannouncetheweatherforecasttothesocietythroughvariouschannels.Themainwaystodisseminateweatherforecastsaretelevision,newspapers,theInternet,mobilephonetextmessages,weathercalls,andtheInternet.ObtainingweatherforecastinformationthroughtheInternetwillbethefuturetrend.Well-knownweatherforecastwebsitesincludeChinaWeatherNetwork,CentralMeteorologicalObservatory,WeatherOnline,etc.TheCentralMeteorologicalObservatorywebsiteprovidesreal-timeweatherforecastinformationandweeklyweatherforecastinformationformajorcitiesandregionsacrossthecountry.
Obvyklé podmínky
V pořádku:Pokrytí oblohy je menší než 30 %.
Zataženo:Pokrytí oblohy tvoří 90 % nebo více.
Fog:Alargenumberoftinywaterdropletsoricecrystalsfloatintheairneartheground,andthehorizontalvisibilitydropstowithin1km,whichaffectstransportation.
Lightrain:Denní srážky jsou menší než 10 mm.
Silný déšť: denní srážky jsou 25,0–49,9 mm.
Hromky: dešťové přeháňky, které se náhle zastaví a spadnou, doprovázené blesky a bouřkami.
Hail:Thesmallhailnucleusrisesrepeatedlywiththefierceverticalmovementinthecumulonimbuscloud,condensesandmelts,andgrowsintosmalliceblockswithalternatingtransparentlayersandfalls,whichaffectscrops.
Mrazivý déšť: kapky deště zamrzají na zemi pod 0 °C, také známý jako Yusong (zmrzlý kapkami mlhy, nazývaný námraza), který často láme dráty, což má za následek mrazivou vozovku a ovlivňuje komunikaci, napájení, dopravu atd.
Déšť se sněhem: Teplota u země je mírně vyšší než 0 °C, ve stejnou dobu padá sníh nebo déšť.
Jemné sněžení: Denní sněžení (roztavené ve vodě) je menší než 2,5 mm.
Střední sněžení: Denní sněžení (roztávající se voda) je 2,6–4,9 mm.
Silné sněžení: Denní sněžení (roztávající se ve vodě) dosahuje nebo přesahuje 5,0 mm.
Frost:Thewhitefrostonthegroundandthesurfaceoftheobjectwherethetemperatureislowerthan0℃iscalledfrost.Thewatervaporcontentislowandnofrostisformed.Itissaidthatblackfrostisharmfultocrops.Itiscalledfrost.
Low-pressuretroughsandhigh-pressureridges:onthefluctuatinghigh-altitudewesterlyairflow,thetroughcorrespondstothelow-pressuretrough,warmairinfrontofthetroughisactive,rainyandsnowyweather,coldairbehindthetroughiscontrolled,andwindyweatheriscool;wavecrestCorrespondingtothehighpressureridge,theskyisclear.
Coldfrontandwarmfront:Thecoldfrontisthefrontofthecoldair.Atthejunctionofthecoldandwarmairmasses,thecoldairadvancestowardthewarmair.Windyandintenseweatheronthecoldfront,strongwindsbehindthefronttocooltheweather;onthecontrary,itisawarmfront,withrainyweatheronthefront,cloudyandsunnyweatherbehindthefront,andthetemperaturerises.
GaoFeng:Expressedbythewindarrow,composedofwinddirectionrodsandwindfeathers.Thewinddirectionrodreferstothedirectionofthewindandhas8directions.Thewindplumeconsistsof3,4dashesandtrianglestoindicatethewindforceofthestrongwind,whichisperpendiculartotherightsideoftheendofthewinddirectionrod(NorthernHemisphere).
Všeobecný smysl pro počasí
Při poslechu předpovědi počasí často slyším výrazy jako „dnes“ a „dnes v noci“ a „zataženo“, „zataženo“, „slunečno“ atd. Meteorologické termíny.
"Dnes během dne" se vztahuje na 12 hodin od 8:00 do 20:00 v noci; "Dnes v noci" se vztahuje na 12 hodin od 20:00 do 8:00 následujícího rána." Dobře" znamená, že mrak pokrývá účty pro 10–30 %;"oblačno" znamená"7% účtů pro; na 80-100 %.
Existují dva standardy pro srážky v meteorologické jednotce: 12 hodin a 24 hodin. 12hodinový standard úrovně srážek je: "lehký déšť" se týká srážek 0,6-5 mm;"střední deště"srážky 5,1-15 mm;"silný déšť"1mm silný déšť"15,1-0 0,1-200mm.The24 -norma hodinových srážek je:"slabý déšť"srážky se vztahují na 1-10 mm;"střední dešťové"srážky se vztahují na 10,1-25mm;"silný déšť"srážky se vztahují na 25,1-50mm;"silný déšť" se vztahuje na 50,1-100mm;"pro 25mm dešťové srážky" esnote překračuje 12 hodin, to znamená 12- hodinový standard úrovně srážek. Pokud se předpovídá, že bude dnes během dne nebo v noci déšť, znamená to, že sníh napadne do 12 hodin. Pokud se předpovídá, že ode dne do noci bude mírné až silné sněžení, vztahuje se to na množství srážek za 24 hodin. předpovědi a analýzu budoucího počasí.
BecausetheMeteorologicalBureauprovidesonlythreeforecastsdailytoTVstations,radiostations,andmajornewspapers:morning,noon,andevening.Itisimpossibletomaketimelyforecastsforsuddenweatherchanges.Howcanwelearnaboutsuddenweatherchangesintime?SinceSeptember2009,Chinahasopeneda121weatherhotline.Onaverage,thereisanewforecasteverytwohours,whichistimelyandaccurate,convenientandfast.Forexample,the121weatherhotlineinYangzhoucananswer60callsatthesametime,andthecallchargesareequaltoordinarylocalcalls.Mostcityweatherstations(bureaus)openofficialweathermicroblogs.
Předpověď počasí pro zvířata a rostliny
Předpověď počasí pro zvířata
Swallows:swallowsareflyingclosetothegroundinsultryweather,itiswindyandheavyrainAsignthatiscoming.Becausetheairhumidityishighbeforeitrains,thewingsofinsectsaremoistanddonotflyhigh.Inordertocatchtheinsects,theswallowsflylowforfood.
Bee:Whencollectinghoney,itwillcomeoutearlyandreturnlate,indicatingthatthenextdaymustbesunny;ifitdoesnotleavethenestorleaveslate,itwillreturnearly,itwillberainysoon;ifWhenitrains,itcollectshoney,whichindicatesthattheskywillbeclear.
Ants:Iftheyholdwhiteseedsintheirmouths,lineupandmovetoahigherplaceinahurry,itindicatesthattherewillbecontinuousrainydaysandheavyrainfall;iftheymovetoalowerplace,Tellsus:therewillbedroughtinthefuture,andthewatersupplyhereisinsufficient.
Loach:Loachiscalled"livingbarometer".Iftheloachisirritable,churnsupanddown,andtherearemanybubblesonthewatersurface,itindicatesthatitwillrainsoonortherewillbeastrongnortherlywind;onthecontrary,iftheloachsitsquietlyonthebottomofthewater,itindicatesthattheweatherisclear.
Had:Had vyšel z jeskyně, zůstal stranou na silnici nebo se plazil pomalu jedním směrem, což naznačuje, že bude pršet. Pokud se počet hadů z díry zvýší, bude deště větší; naopak, bude dešť menší.
Pavouk:Za soumraku se točí pavučinou, aby zachytil hmyz.Toto říká lidem:Nedávno je slunečno a na obloze jsou mraky; pokud hedvábí visí dolů, znamená to, že přichází deštivý den.
Želva: Je to studenokrevné zvíře. Želví krunýř snadno odvádí teplo a její tělesná teplota je nižší než teplota. Proto se jednou „potí“ na zádech, to znamená, že bude pršet.
Předpověď počasí v rostlině
"Flowersknowsunnyandrainy,grassandtreesreportweather".Itwasdiscoveredthatintheplantkingdom,somememberscanpredicttheweatherlikeaweatherstation.
Themostfamous"weatherforecaster"isa100-year-oldgreengangtreeinLongdingVillage,XinchengCounty,Guangxi.Whenitissunny,itsleavesaredarkgreen,andtheweatherwillbedrybeforeitrains.,Theleavesturnred,andwhentheweatherturnsfineafterrain,theleavesreturntotheiroriginaldarkgreen.Afterresearchbyscientists,itturnsoutthatinadditiontochlorophyll,itsleavesalsocontainlutein,anthocyanin,carotene,etc.Iftheweatherisnormalandthechlorophyllmetabolismisalsonormal,theleaveswillnaturallybedarkgreen.Oncethehotandbrightweathercomes,thesynthesisofchlorophyllwillbeinhibitedandthesynthesisofanthocyaninswillbeaccelerated,sotheleaveswillturnred.
Flowersalsohave"weatherflowers".ThereisakindofwonderfulcalamusinXishuangbannainourcountry.Whenastormisabouttocome,itwillbloomwithalargenumberofbeautifulflowersandredpetalsthatdyethedeepmountainsandoldforests.Dyedredcliffs...Themysteryofthecalamuslotuspredictingwindandrainisthatbeforethestormcomes,theoutsideatmosphericpressuredrops,theweatherissultry,andtheplant'stranspirationincreases,makingitsbulbsthatstorenutrientsproducealotofhormones.,Thusbloomingalotofflowers.
Thereisalsoakindof"temperaturegrass"insouthernSweden.Itcannotonlyforecasttheweather,butalsomeasurethetemperature.Theleavesofthisgrassareoval,andtheflowersthatbloomareblue,yellow,andwhite.Peoplealsocallitpansy.Theleavesofthisplantareextremelysensitivetoairtemperature.Whenthetemperatureisabove20°C,theleavesextenddiagonallyupward;whenthetemperaturedropsto15°C,theleavesslowlymovedownwardsuntiltheyareparalleltotheground;whenthetemperaturedropsAt10°C,thebladesprotrudeobliquelydownward.Ifthetemperaturerisesandtheleavesreturntotheiroriginalstate,thelocalresidentscanknowthetemperaturelevelaccordingtothedirectioninwhichtheleavesextend.
Inthesummermorning,ifthevineheadsofthepumpkinarealltilteddown,itindicatesthatitwillrain;andintherainyweather,ifmostofthevineheadsofthepumpkinaretiltedup,itindicatesthatasunnydaywillbecoming.Coming,thisisbecausethepumpkinvinehastheinstincttobemasculineandfeminine.
Forthewaterchestnutgrowingonthesurfaceofthelakeandpond,ifthewaterchestnutplate"sinks",therewillbewindandraininthesky.Thisisbecausebeforetheonsetofrainydays,thetemperaturerisesandtheairpressuredrops,thesedimentsatthebottomofthelakesandpondsarefermented,thegeneratedbiogasescapes,blisterscontinuetoemergefromthewater,andthesludgeanddebrisfromthebottomriseandsticktotheleavesofthewaterchestnut.Up,theweightofthewaterchestnutplateincreasesandsinks.
Aplikace a vývoj předpovědi počasí
Obchod s předpovědí počasí
Weatherforecastbusinessisdevelopingtowardshighertemporalandspatialresolution,perfectForecastservicesarealwaysbasedonprovidinguserswithhigheraccuracyandmoreadvancedforecastinformation.Therefore,thedevelopmentofanumericalforecastmodelsystemwithhighertemporalandspatialresolutionandlongerforecasttimelinessisalwaysthecoretaskofthedevelopmentofweatherforecasttechnology.,Statisticalpost-processingtechnologybasedonnumericalreportingmodelproducts,interpretationapplicationtechnologycombinedwiththeoccurrenceanddevelopmentofdisastrousweather,anddigitalforecasttechnologytomeetvariousneedsareinevitablerequirementsforthemoderndevelopmentofweatherservices.
Inthefuture,thedigitalforecastsystemwillfurtherdevelopgrid-basedobjectiveforecastmethods,improvethetemporalandspatialrefinementofdigitalforecastproducts,thediversificationofforecastelements,andforecastaccuracy.Onthisbasis,theestablishmentofdisastrousweatherandforecastTheall-element,multi-time-effect,andmulti-timeproductsystemofhigh-impactweatherenhancespublicandprofessionalmeteorologicalproductsupport;enhancestheintelligentandcollaborativeforecastbusinesscapabilitiesofthedigitalforecastbusinessplatform,andenhancestheautomaticweatherscaleandmesoscalesystemRecognitionfunction,improvedgraphicalinteractivecorrectionofgridelementforecasts,supportformulti-levelcollaborativehigh-temporal-spatialresolutiondigitalforecastingbusinessprocesses,andrealizenational,provincial,andcounty-levelintelligentdigitalforecastguidance,feedback,coordination,andproductionAndrelease.
Inthecentury,nationaldisasterpreventionandmitigation,protectionofsocialandeconomicdevelopment,andpeople’swell-beinghaveputforwardhigherdemandsonmeteorologicalservices,anddevelopedweatherforecastingtechnologiesandproductsfeaturing"digitalizationandrefinement".Thesystemisaninevitablerequirementtorealizethemodernizationofweatherbusiness.Italsoputsforwardhigherrequirementsforthedevelopmentofdisciplinetheoryandbreakthroughsinkeytechnologies.Standingonanewlevelofadvancementinweatherforecastingtechnology,focusingonthefrontiersofinternationalmeteorologicaltechnologydevelopment,strivingtoactivelyexploreandinnovateintherapidupdateandassimilationofmulti-sourcedataandforecastingtechnology,ensembleforecastingsystemsofdifferentscales,anddigitalforecastingtechnologies,istopromoteweatherTheonlywayfornewchangesandadvancementsinforecastingtechnology.
Vojenské meteorologické technologické práce
Newmilitaryhigh-altitudedetectionequipment,fieldweatherinstruments,militarygroundmulti-elementmeteorologicaltelemetryequipment,automaticweatherstations,etc.,forthemilitaryMeteorologicalobservationsprovidenewmeanstograduallydevelopthemilitary'smeteorologicalobservationanddetectionworkfromtraditionalmanualoperationstomodernautomatedremotesensingandremotesensing;digitalweatherradar,Dopplerweatherradarandadvancedlightningdetectionequipmenthavebeensuccessfullydevelopedandapplied,Tofurtherimprovetheabilitytomonitordangerousweatherandcatastrophicweather;theopeningofsatelliteTVweatherdatabroadcastingnetworksandpublicdatanetworks,andtheestablishmentofsatellitecommunicationnetworksinkeyareashavecausedmajorchangesinthetechnicalmeansofmeteorologicalcommunication.Thetransmissionspeed,coverage,timelinessandqualityhavebeensignificantlyimproved;theapplicationofbusinessautomationsystemssuchasweatherobservationdataprocessing,weathermapautomaticanalysisanddrawing,satellitecloudmapautomaticreceptionandprocessing,weatherdatabase,etc.,hassignificantlyenhancedthemeteorologicalinformationanalysisandprocessingcapabilities;usingtheGalaxy1.Numericalweatherforecastingbysupercomputersandadvancedlong-termweatherforecastingsystemshavesignificantlyimprovedthelevelofclimatepredictionandsignificantlyacceleratedthedigitizationprocessofweatherforecastingandweathersupport;newmobileweathersupportequipmentforfieldoperationsplaysanimportantroleinmajormilitaryexercisesTheconstructionofmilitarymeteorologicaldisciplinesandthefruitfulresultsofthetheoreticalresearchonmeteorologicalsupportforhigh-techlocalwarshaveprovidedpowerfulguidanceforthedevelopmentofmilitarymeteorologicalundertakingsandpromotedtheimprovementofmilitarymeteorologicalsupportcapabilities.
Prevence a zmírňování zemědělských katastrof
Theadvancementofinformationtechnology,theapplicationofnewtypesofmeteorologicalequipment,andtheimprovementofthetechnologyofweatherforecastersareallcontinuouslyimprovingweatherforecasting.Degreeofaccuracy.Therefore,long-termforecastsmustbeusedtoresistnaturaldisasterssuchasdrought,floods,lowtemperatureandcolddamage,andfrost.Long-termclimateforecastscanpredictthemeteorologicalchangesthatoccurwithinacertainperiodoftime,suchaswhentherewillbelowtemperature,whentherewillbedrought,whenwhentheremaybefloods,andwhenwhenthereisfrost,soyoucantaketargetedmeasuresbasedontheforecastTakeprevention.Forexample,waterconservancyprojectscanbebuiltinresponsetodroughtsandfloods,sothattheabilityoffarmlandtodrainwaterlogginganddroughtresistancecanbeenhanced.Plantingtrees,returningfarmlandtograssland,andreturningfarmlandtoforestswillchangetheregionalclimateandreducetheincidenceofsevereweather.Inaddition,long-termforecastscanprovideadvanceguidanceforagriculturalproductionplanning.Infarming,plantvarieties,plantingtime,plantingstructure,etc.areselectedaccordingtoclimaticcharacteristics.Long-termforecastscannotonlygivepeopletimetopreventdisastersinadvance,butalsomakereasonableuseofthecharacteristicsofweatherchangestoselectplantingtypesandincreaseagriculturalproductivity.
TheapplicationofthenewDopplerweatherradartechnologytoagriculturalweatherforecastshassignificantlyimprovedtheaccuracyofshort-termforecastsandshort-termforecasts.Throughthisradarmonitoringtechnology,itispossibletomonitorthechangesandmovingdirectionsofsmallandmedium-scalestrongconvectiveweatherinrealtime,ensuretheaccuracyofweatherforecasts,andreduceagriculturaldisasters.Moreover,thisweatherforecasttechnologycanalsobeappliedtootherareasoflife,suchasmunicipaltransportation,emergencycommandcenters,agriculture,wateraffairs,etc.,toformanearlywarninglinkagemechanism.Short-term,near-termweatherforecastscanbeusedtounderstandtheweatherinthearea.Ifthereisadrought,anti-aircraftartilleryandrocketscanbeusedtoartificiallyaffecttheweatherforartificialprecipitation.Ifhailweatheroccurs,humaninterventioncanalsobeusedtopreventhail.Atpresent,animportantmeasureforeffectivedisasterpreventionandmitigationinagriculturalproductionisartificialinfluence,andshort-termandnear-termweatherforecastwarningsprovideitwithmeteorologicalinformation,combinedwithreal-timeradarmonitoring,andartificialinfluencetochangeregionalweathertoachievedroughtresistance,hailprevention,andPurposessuchasincreasingrainfall.Forexample,in2010,LiuzhouCitysufferedfromseverelylowrainfall,allcropsinthecitysufferedfromdrought,reservoirswereinsufficientlystored,andtheforestfirepreventionsituationwasalsosevere.Inresponsetoseveredrought,LiuzhouCityimplementedartificialweatherinfluencingoperations,comparedwithnon-operatingareas.Increasedby20mm,theeffectofincreasingrainfallreached20%,completelyeliminatingtheagriculturaldrought.Practicehasprovedthattheimpactofmanualoperationsonthebasisofshort-termandnear-termweatherforecastscanreduceoreliminateagriculturaldisasters.