Brief Description
Decision Theory originated from the 1950s, American scholar A. Wald 's statistical decision theory. Some basic concepts of decision theory (such as subjective probability, Bayesian analysis method, utility function, etc.) have a close relationship between earlier statistics and economics. In 1961, the publication of the book of American scholar H · Law and R · 0 · Schlef's "Application Statistical Decision Theory" made decision theory with the prototype of the discipline. In 1966, American scholar R · Howard in literature, in the literature, decision-making, applying decision theory, explicitly put decision-making analysis as a branch of decision theory. Modern decision-making theory and behavioral science, psychology, economics, and military science and other relevant subject cross-development, its content has far exceeded the content contained in these classic literatures.
Decision theory and countermeasures are in terms of decision-making, policymakers face the natural environment, the natural environment is objective, even if there is uncertainty, there is often certain regularity Such as statistical regularity). In the countermeasures, decision makers face a live opponent. He will constantly changing his strategy, and even seize the other party's mistake, he will still keep your own action intention, so in the countermeasures Decision makers can only start from the most unfavorable situation, or minimize the loss.
Basic Concept
1. Decision : There are many different definitions on decisions, but basically divided into two factions. Narrow decision making and generalized decision. Narrow decisions believe that decision-making decisions, simply emphasize the final result; broad decisions believe that the behavior of management processes is incorporated into decision-making categories, and decisions run throughout the management process.
2. Decision Elements : Decision elements refer to some of the main factors that may have an impact on decision results.
3. Decision target : The state of the policy of decision makers wants to achieve, and the work ability.
4. Decision Guidelines The standard of decision judgment, the validity of the alternative.
5. Decision Attributes The performance, quality parameters, characteristics, and constraints of decision plan, such as technical indicators, weight, age, reputation, etc., used to evaluate its degree of goals and level.
Classification
decision theory can be divided into traditional decision theory (or classical decision theory) and modern decision theory.
Traditional decision theory
also known as "classical decision theory". The starting point of this theory is to treat people as absolute rationality. He follows the principle of maximizing during decision-making. The so-called maximum principle is to determine and select implementations for various factors that affect the target. If considering the business method, people, wealth, and things are the smallest, the yield, output value, and the profit requirements for the achievement are the largest. It can be seen that the traditional decision theory is based on absolute logic reasoning, which is a closed decision model.
Modern Decision Theory
is a symmetrical symmetry of "traditional decision theory". The core of this theory is to replace the classical maximum insecurity in "satisfactory guidelines" and propose corresponding decision-making procedures. It is created by Herbert Simon, a professor of Caterie, Mellon, USA, and obtained 1978 Nobel's Economic Job Prize. Simon believes that pure people are known to all measures and programs during decision-making, and the results of each program can also be determined to make a decision-making: make decisions. In real life, decision makers are determined by the environment and the local conditions as determined by the local conditions, and it is impossible to find all programs, and it is impossible to compare all programs, so it is practical to make maximum principles decisions. The maximum principle is only in logical reasoning, but there is no practical value. Therefore, he proposed a satisfactory code of conduct to replace the principle of maximization, and formed a modern decision theory. The so-called satisfactory code of conduct is to determine a set of standards that can be practically needed, if a certain plan meets this standard, and can say that this program is satisfactory. This solution can be determined. But in fact, in various activities such as human life and production, they are all conditional when looking for a certain goal. Therefore, it should also be noted that when decisive according to the satisfactory conduct of a satisfactory criteria, when you find a satisfactory plan, you can make the necessary revisions on the original standard, and then select satisfactory Solution.
Application
People often encounter problems that need to make judgments and decisions in practice, that is, decision-making issues. The so-called decision is to achieve a certain purpose T | L from a variety of different scenarios. For example, people are in daily life, companies in business activities, social groups, government departments and countries encounter many problems that need to make decisions in various activities. Specifically, the choice of the development and operation plan of the enterprise production plan; what kind of investment project is chosen, how much investment is asked in time? What kind of means of transportation and driving route choose? The troops strategy? A country's annual plan to formulate, military, diplomatic activities, etc. To solve this type of problem, it is a problem that decisionTheory is studying.