Historicaldevelopment
Demographicstatisticsareproducedanddevelopedtomeettheneedsofsocialdevelopmentandnationalmanagement.Itistheearlieststatisticsthatappearedinhumansociety.In4500BC,Babylonhadsurveyedpopulationitems;Chinahadpopulationandlandstatisticsin2100BCduringtheXiaYuera;aftertheZhouDynasty,therewasacensussysteminalldynasties;therewasalsoapopulationsurveysystemin2A.D.Theofficialpopulationrecordsofthewholecountryandsub-regionswererecorded.Theslavesocietyandfeudalsocietyconductedpopulationsurveysandregistrationstomeettheneedsoftherulingclassfortaxation,servitude,andconscription.Themethodsandcontentofstatisticswererelativelysimple;intheHanDynasty,theEmperorWureignedThefirstdemographicstatisticsinhumanhistory;inacapitalistsociety,demographicstatisticshavedevelopedgreatly.Inadditiontostatisticsonpopulationandgender,age,andethnicity,therearestatisticsonemploymentandunemployment,industryandoccupation,educationlevel,religiousbeliefs,maritalstatus,fertility,andotherstatistics.ThestatisticalcontentisbecomingmoreabundantandthedemographicsystemIthasbecomemorecomplete,andhasgraduallyestablishedanddevelopedamoderncensussystem,andpopulationstatisticshavebecomemoreandmoresystematicandcomplete.Inasocialistsociety,economicdevelopmentandpopulationdevelopmentareincludedinthenationalplan.Demographicstatisticsprovideservicesforcompilingnationaleconomicandsocialdevelopmentplans,formulatingpopulationpolicies,implementingfamilyplanning,compilingandinspectingpopulationplans,andfornationaladministrationandpopulationresearch.provideinformation.
Relatedcalculationformulas
1.Birthratereferstotheratioofthenumberofbirthstotheaveragepopulationinacertainplaceinoneyear.Itisgenerallyexpressedinthousands,indicatingthenumberofbirthsperthousandofthepopulationinayear.Thecalculationformulais:
Birthrate=numberofbirthsintheyear÷annualaveragepopulation×1000‰
2.Fertilityrateisarelativeindicatorreflectingthefertilityintensityofwomenofchildbearingage.Itisdifferentfromthebirthrate,whichindicatestheproportionalrelationshipbetweenthenumberofbirthsandthetotalpopulation.Thebirthrateisbasedonthetotalpopulationasthebasicdataforcomparison,butinfactonlywomenofchildbearingagehavetheabilitytohavechildren(exceptforinfertility).Therefore,thenumberofbirthsisonlydirectlydependentonthenumberofwomenofchildbearingage.Statisticsandresearchonthefertilityrateofwomenofchildbearingageareofgreatsignificanceforanalyzingthecausesofchangesinthebirthrate,studyingthedevelopmenttrendofpopulationreproduction,andpredictingthefuturedevelopmentofpopulation.
Thecalculationoffertilityratecanbebasedonthespecificrequirementsofdemographicstatistics,usingcalculationmethodssuchasgeneralfertilityrate,fertilityrateforwomenbyage,cumulativefertilityrate,lifetimefertilityrate,andtotalfertilityrate.
3.Thetotalfertilityratereferstotheage-specificfertilityrateforwomenofchildbearingageinacertainyear(oraspecificgroup).Theaveragenumberofchildrenborn.Thetotalfertilityrateisafertilityrateindexthattakesacertainyearasa"cross-section",anditisalsoa"forward-lookingindex".Itischaracterizedbylookingforwardandhasasignalnature.Thecalculationmethodis:
Totalfertilityrate=thesumofthefertilityratesofwomenofallages
4.MortalityisanindicationofthedeathintensityofthepopulationinacertainareainacertainperiodoftimeRelativeindicators.Itisusuallycalculatedwiththeyearastheunitoftime.Thecalculationformulais:
Deathrate=numberofdeathsintheyear÷averagepopulationoftheyear×1000‰
5.Infantmortalityratereferstothenumberofinfantdeathsbetween0-12monthsTheratioofthenumberofbabiesbornbetween0-12monthsoldisgenerallyexpressedinthousandths.Sincesomeofthedeathsofbabiesfrom0-12monthswerebornthisyearandsomewereborninthepreviousyear,thebirthdensityofthepopulationvariesgreatlyduringtheyear,anditisnotconvenienttocalculatetheannualaverage.Whencalculatinginfantmortality,thedenominatorisusuallythesumof1/3ofthenumberofbirthsinthepreviousyearand2/3ofthenumberofbirthsinthisyear.Thecalculationformulais:
Infantmortalityrate=thenumberofpeoplewhodiedunderoneyearoldthisyear÷(1/3thenumberofbirthsinthepreviousyear+2/3thenumberofbirthsintheyear)×1000‰
6.Thenaturalgrowthratereferstotheratioofthenaturalgrowthofthepopulationinacertainperiodtotheaveragetotalnumberofpeopleintheregionduringtheperiod.Theannualnaturalgrowthrateiscommonlyused,usuallyexpressedinthousandths,referredtoastheself-increasingrate.Thecalculationformulais:
Naturalgrowthrate=annualnaturalgrowthnumber÷theannualaveragetotalpopulationoftheyear×1000‰
7.Familyplanningratereferstoacertainperiodinacertainarea(usuallyoneYears)Theratioofthenumberoflivebirthsbornincompliancewiththerequirementsoffamilyplanningtothetotalnumberoflivebirthsinthesametimeperiod,expressedasapercentage.Thecalculationformulais:
Familyplanningrate=numberofbirthsplannedinacertainyear÷totalnumberofbirthsinthesameperiod×100%.
8.BirthcontrolrateisthenumberofwomenofchildbearingagewhoimplementbirthcontrolandcontraceptivemeasuresasapercentageoftheirchildbearingageTheproportionofwomen.Thecalculationformulaisasfollows:
Birthcontrolrate=numberofwomenimplementingbirthcontrolandcontraceptivemeasures÷numberofwomenofchildbearingage×100%
Regardlessofwhethertheimplementedmeasuresaremenorwomen,aslongasthebirthcontrolandcontraceptivemeasuresareimplemented,Allaccordingtothestatisticsofthewoman.Thebirthcontrolmeasurestakenbysomecouplesofchildbearingagehavefailed,sotheyshouldbesubtractedfromthenumberofmarriedwomenofchildbearingagewhohaveimplementedbirthcontrolmeasures.Ifbirthcontrolmeasuresaretakenagain,theyshouldbeincludedinanewbirthcontrolmeasure.
9.Therateofreceivingcertificatesforonly-childrenreferstotheratioofthenumberofcertificatesforonly-childrenundertheageof14whoseparentshaveappliedfornolongergivingbirthtothetotalnumberofmarriedwomenofchildbearingage.Thecalculationformulais:
Therateofobtainingone-childcertificate=thenumberofpeoplewhohavereceivedone-childcertificate÷thetotalnumberofmarriedwomenofchildbearingage×100%
10.ThegenderratioofthepopulationismaleorTheratioofwomenisusuallyexpressedastheratioof100womentohowmanymen.Thecalculationformulais:
Genderratio=Numberofmales÷Numberoffemales×100%
11.Asadynamicprocess,populationchangesatalltimes.ThischangeinChinaisquitelarge,andsometimesforstatisticalpurposes(suchascalculatingbirthrate,deathrate,percapitaoutput,percapitaoutputvalue,etc.),itisnecessarytousetheannualaveragepopulationasanindicator.Thisindicatorreflectstheaveragenumberofsurvivorsatvariouspointsintheyear.
Generallycalculatetheannualaveragepopulation,youcanusetheformulaofthepopulationatthebeginningoftheyearplusthepopulationattheendoftheyeardividedby2,namely:
Theaverageannualpopulation=(thepopulationatthebeginningoftheyear+theendoftheyearPopulation)÷2
Statisticalindicators
Population
PopulationreferstoacertainpointintimeandwithinacertainareaThesumoflivingindividuals.
Theyear-endpopulationinannualstatisticsreferstothepopulationat24:00onDecember31eachyear.ThetotalpopulationofthecountryintheannualstatisticsdoesnotincludethenumberofcompatriotsfromTaiwanProvince,HongKongandMacao,andoverseasChinese.
Figure1showstheglobaldemographics,whileFigure2showsthedemographicsbasedongender.
Totalpopulationofcitiesandtownsandtotalpopulationofvillages
Therearetwodefinitionsoftotalpopulationofcitiesandtownsandtotalpopulationofvillages:
(1)Thefirstcaliber(accordingtotheadministrativesystem):
Citypopulation:theentirepopulationintheareaunderthejurisdictionofthecity(includingtownsunderthejurisdictionofthecity,excludingdistrictsandcountiesunderthejurisdictionofthecity);
Townpopulation:thetotalpopulationofcounty-administeredtowns(excludingmunicipaltowns);
Countypopulation:county-administeredtownshippopulation.
(2)Thesecondcaliber(dividedbypermanentpopulation):
Citypopulation:thepopulationofacitywithdistrictsandthepopulationofstreetsunderthejurisdictionofacitywithoutdistricts;
Townpopulation:thepopulationofresidentscommitteesintownsunderthejurisdictionofcitieswithoutdistrictsandthepopulationofresidentscommitteesintownsunderthejurisdictionofcounties;
Countypopulation:allpopulationsexcepttheabovetwopopulations.
Amongthem,thedatafrom1952to1980arethedataofthefirstcaliber,andthedataafter1982arethedataofthesecondcaliber.
Birthrate
Birthrate(alsoknownascrudebirthrate)referstotheaveragenumberofbirthsper1,000peopleinacertainperiodoftime(usuallyayear)Ratio,generallyexpressedinpercent.Thecalculationformulais:
Birthrate=annualnumberofbirths/annualaveragenumber×1000‰
Amongthem,thenumberofbirthsreferstolivebirths,thatis,whenthefetusisseparatedfromthemother(regardlessofthenumberofmonthsofpregnancy),Havehadbreathingorotherlifephenomena.Theannualaveragepopulationreferstotheaverageofthepopulationatthebeginningandtheendoftheyear,anditcanalsobereplacedbythemid-yearpopulation.
Mortality
Mortality(alsoknownascrudemortality)referstothenumberofdeathsinacertainareaduringacertainperiod(usuallyayear)andTheratiooftheaveragenumberofpeopleinthesameperiod(orthenumberofpeopleintheperiod)isgenerallyexpressedinperthousand.Thecalculationformulais:
Deathrate=annualnumberofdeaths/annualaveragenumber×1000‰
Thenaturalpopulationgrowthratereferstothenaturalincreaseinpopulationinacertainperiod(usuallyayear)Theratioof(thenumberofbirthsminusthenumberofdeaths)totheaveragenumberofpeopleintheperiod(orthenumberofpeopleintheperiod)isgenerallyexpressedinthousandths.Thecalculationformulais:
Naturalpopulationgrowthrate=(numberofbirthsthisyear-numberofdeathsthisyear)/annualaveragenumber×1000‰=birthrate-populationdeathrate
Employedpopulation
Employedpopulation(alsoknownasemployedpopulation)referstothepopulationwhoare15yearsoldandabovewhoengageincertainsociallaborandobtainlaborremunerationoroperatingincome.
Theunemployedpopulation
Theunemployedpopulationreferstothosewhoarenotengagedinsociallaboramongthepopulationaged15andover,includingschoolstudents,Non-employedpopulationsuchashouseholdchores,waitingforfurthereducation,waitingforemploymentintowns,retired,retired,andincapacitated.
Totalburdenfactor
Thetotalburdenfactorreferstothedifferencebetweenthedependentpopulation(peopleaged0-14andover65)andthepopulationaged15-64Proportion.Thecalculationformulais:
Totalburdencoefficient=Dependentpopulation/Populationaged15-64×100%
Coefficientofburdenonoldage
Theburdenofoldagecoefficientreferstotheratiooftheelderlypopulation(populationover65)tothepopulationaged15-64.Thecalculationformulais:
Coefficientofburdenofoldage=Elderlypopulation/Populationof15-64yearsold×100%
Coefficientofburdenofyouth
Adolescentburdencoefficientreferstotheratioofadolescentstothepopulationaged15-64.Thecalculationformulais:
Adolescentburdencoefficient=Children’spopulation/15~64-year-oldpopulation×100%
Indicators
DemographicsisaquantitativestudyofpopulationThecurrentstatus,changesanddevelopmenttrendsofvariousbiologicalcharacteristics(suchasage,gendercomposition)andsocialcharacteristics(suchasoccupation,culturalandeconomicstatusdistribution,etc.).Itisthemaincornerstonefordeterminingthenationalpopulationpolicy,anditisalsoanimportantbasisforvariousdepartmentsofthenationaleconomytoformulateplans,determinedeployment,andadjustpolicies.Thevariouscharacteristicsofthepopulationaredifferent,andthespectrumofdiseasesanddeathsarealsodifferent.Forexample,thespectrumofdiseasesanddeathsindevelopedcountriesareoftendominatedbyheartandcerebrovasculardiseasesandcancer,whilethespectrumofdiseasesanddeathsindevelopingcountriesaremainlybasedontherespiratorysystem.Mainlydiseasesandinfectiousdiseases.Oneoftheimportantreasonsforthisdifferenceisthattheagecompositionandculturalandeconomicdistributionofthepopulationofthesetwotypesofcountriesaredifferent.Thisalsoshowsthatthepopulationswithdifferentcharacteristicshavedifferentneedsforhealthcare.Inaddition,bydynamicallyobservingthedemographicindicatorsofacountryorregion,orcomparingthedemographicindicatorsofdifferentregionsandcountries,youcanevaluatethequalityofhealthcareinacountryorregion.Therefore,demographicstatisticsisnotonlyanindispensablebasisforformulatinghealthcarepolicies,butalsoanobjectiveindicatorforevaluatingthequalityofhealthwork.Demographicindicatorsareusuallydividedintotwocategories,namelystaticindicatorsanddynamicindicators.Figure3showsthedemographicmonitoringpoints.
Staticindex
Staticindexortimepointindex.Reflectthesituationatacertainpointintime.Itistotakeacross-sectional,staticmomentarydatafromacontinuouslychangingprocess,suchasthepopulation,age,gender,ethnicity,etc.ofthepopulationatacertaintimeofacertainyear,acertainmonth,andacertaintime.CommonlyusedstaticpopulationindicatorsareSexratioandpopulationpyramid.
1.Sexratio:reflectstheratiobetweenmenandwomeninthepopulation.Itisusuallyexpressedintermsofhowmanymenthereareforevery100womeninthepopulation.Thatis,inadditiontothesexratioofthetotalpopulation,therearesexratiosofdifferentages.Suchasbirthsexratio,infantsexratioandsoon.Thesexratioofthepopulationhasitsownrules.Atbirth,therearegenerallymorementhanwomen,andthebirthsexratioisgenerallyintherangeof103to107.Sincethedeathrateofmenisusuallyhigherthanthatofwomen,thesexratioiscloseto100intheyoungandmiddleages.Inoldage,therearemorewomenthanmen,sothesexratioismostlybelow100.Certainsocialfactorsoftenleadtosexualimbalance.Forexample,warcancausealargenumberofdeathsofmalecitizensandcauseademographicimbalance(forexample,manycountrieshadmorewomenthanmenduringtheSecondWorldWar);insomesocietieswithstrongfeudalcolors,femaleinfantabuseoftenoccurred.Thisleadstoarelativelyhighbirthrate.Thelawofsexratioisonlyreliablewhenalargenumberofstatisticsareused.
2.Pyramid:Theageandgenderstructureofthepopulationcanberepresentedbypyramidgraphics.Thepopulationpyramidhasacentralaxis,andthescaleonitrepresentsage.Itiscustomarytogroupby1or5yearsold,butyoucangroupbyanyageintervalasneeded,butthegroupsmustbeequidistant;theleftsideofthecentralaxisofthepyramidrepresentsthemalepopulation,andtherightrepresentsthepopulation.Thefemalepopulationcanbeexpressedinabsolutenumbersorpercentages.
Dynamicindicators
Thistypeofindicatorreflectsthenaturalorsocialchangesofthepopulationwithinacertainperiodoftime,suchasbirths,deaths,andmigrationinacertainyear.ItreflectsThetotalsituationofacertaineventcontinuouslyoccurringinacertainperiod,ratherthanthesituationatapointintime,iscalledapopulationdynamicsindexoraperiodindex.Itcanalsoincludethefollowingindicators.
1.Generalbirthrate:referstothenumberofbirthsper1000populationinacertainperiod(usually1year),thatis,itcanroughlyindicatethebirthlevelofacountryorregion.The"population"inthedenominatorusuallyusesthepopulationinthemiddleoftheyear(at24:00onJune30),ortheaverageofthepopulationattheendofthisyearandthepopulationattheendoflastyear(ie,theaveragepopulation).Thebirthrateisaffectedbytheageandsexcompositionofthepopulation.Forexample,whentheproportionofpeopleofchildbearingage(especiallywomen)inthepopulationisrelativelylarge,thebirthratemustberelativelyhigh.
2.Generalmortality:referstothenumberofdeathsper1,000populationinacertainperiodoftime,thatis,itcanroughlyreflectthedeathlevelofacountryorregion.Butlikethebirthrate,itismoreaffectedbytheagecompositionofthepopulation.Forexample,whentheproportionoftheelderlyinthepopulationislarge,themortalityrateisoftenhigh.Therefore,insomecountrieswithmoredevelopedeconomies,medicalandhealthcare,thegeneralmortalityrateishigherthaninsomedevelopingcountries.
3.Naturalrateofincrease:thedifferencebetweentheannualaveragebirthrateandtheordinarydeathrate.
Growthrate=normalbirthrate-deathrate
Itrepresentstheincreaseinthenumberofpeopleper1,000populationinacertainyear.
4.Fertilityrate:thenumberoflivebirths(orbirths)per1,000womenofchildbearingageinacertainyear.Becauseitisnotaffectedbytheageandgendercompositionofthepopulation,itcanbetterreflectthefertilitylevelofacountryorregion.ThegeneralfertilityrateinChinaisaround50‰.
5.Age-specificfertilityrate:fertilityratecanalsobecalculatedaccordingtodifferentagegroups,anditisgenerallycustomarytouse5yearsasanagegrouptocalculate,suchastotalfertilityrate.Theaveragenumberofchildrenborntoevery1,000womenofchildbearingageinthepopulationaftertheirentirechildbearingperiod(15to44yearsold).Thecalculationofthetotalfertilityratevariesdependingontheagegroup.Whengroupingintogroupsofeachage,thesumofage-specificfertilityratesisthetotalfertilityrate;whengroupingintoa5-year-oldagegroup,thesumofage-specificfertilityratesmultiplyingby5isthetotalfertilityrate.China'scurrenttotalfertilityrateisabout2600‰(or2.6).
6.Age-specificmortalityrate:Becausethegeneralmortalityrateisgreatlyaffectedbytheagecompositionofthepopulation,itissometimesnecessarytocalculatetheage-specificmortalityratebyagegroup.Forexample,theage-specificmortalityratecanreflectthelevelofdeathmoreaccuratelythantheordinarymortalityrate.
7.Infantmortalityrate:Infantreferstothechildhoodperiodfrombirthtolessthan12months.Duringthisperiod,theinfant’sresistancetotheoutsideworldisverylowanditisveryeasytodie.Therefore,theinfantmortalityrateisoftenItisasensitiveindicatortomeasuretheculturalandhealthlevelofacountry
8.Maternalmortalityrate.Maternaldeathreferstothedeathofawomanduetoreasonsrelatedtopregnancyandchildbirth,andthedeathoccurredwithin42daysafterthestartofpregnancy.Thecausesofmaternaldeathcanbedividedintodirectobstetriccauses(suchashemorrhage,birthinjury,postpartuminfection,etc.)andindirectcauses(pregnancy,tuberculosis,heartdisease,etc.,deathcausedbythedeteriorationoftheconditionduringpregnancyandchildbirth).Itreflectsthelevelofwomen'shealthcareinacountryorregion.ThecurrentmaternalmortalityrateinChinaisaround50,000.Thedenominatorintheformulashouldtheoreticallyuse"thenumberofpregnantwomeninacertainyear",butthisnumberisdifficulttoobtain(manypeoplehaveundergoneartificialabortionorspontaneousabortionafterpregnancy,andhavenotreportedorregistered),sogenerallyuseanapproximatevalue──livebirthsinacertainyearThetotalnumberisusedinstead.
Countrymethods
Thepopulationsofdifferentcountriesintheworldaredifferent,andthestatisticalmethodsarealsostrange.
SingaporedistributesquestionnairesontheInternettoobtainpopulationnumbersfromfeedback.MauritaniausestheGlobalPositioningSystemtogivepointstothenomadsscatteredinthedesert.Ireland,fearingthatthefoot-and-mouthdiseasewouldaffectthepopulation,simplypostponedtheplannednationalcensus.
TheUnitedNations1995-2005globaldemographiccampaignisunderway.Fromthe7thtothe10thofthismonth,statisticiansfrom55countries,whichaccountforthree-quartersoftheworld’spopulation,gatheredinNewYorktoparticipateinaforumoncensusmethods.Inordertocooperatewiththisforum,theUnitedNationsconductedasurveyonthewaysinwhichthepopulationiscountedinvariouscountries.Thesurveyshowsthatdevelopingcountriesareincreasinglyusinghigh-techmethodsindemographicwork.
Inthe2000Brazilcensus,handheldcomputersandmobilephonesprovidedstatisticianswithreal-timedata.EvenpeopleontheAmazonRivercanregister.ThecensusofficerAliciaBerkovicsaidproudly,"Wecanfindproblemsintimeandimprovethemimmediately."
InIndia,withapopulationof100million,600,000ruralpeoplehavelearnedaboutthesignificanceofthecensusthroughtelevisionprograms.InMarch,afterthreeweeksofdataanalysisandprocessing,thecomputerobtainedthepopulationofthecountry.TheIndianCensusCommissionerBanteaisstillnotsatisfied.HesaidthatthecomputerinNewYorkcompletedtheentireprocessinonly10minutes.
Turkeyreliesonthearmytosetuproadblocksonthestreetstoensurethateveryoneiscounted.Andsomecountrieshavetoadoptencouragement.Forexample,inKyrgyzstan,peoplewhoparticipateinthecensuscandrawalottery,andthegrandprizeisafreeapartment.
Ofcourse,thedemographicsofmostcountriesaresupportedbythepeople.HassanAbribud,directorofthePalestinianBureauofStatistics,saidthatwhenPalestineconducteditsfirstcensusin1997,thepeopleofthewholecountrywereproudofbeingabletoparticipateinthesurvey.InGaza,only18peopledidnotparticipateintheinvestigation.
However,politicssometimesaffectsdemographics.TheUNpopulationexpertsaidthatbecauseSyriaisstationedinLebanon,DamascusisreluctanttoreleasethenumberofpeopleworkingandlivinginLebanon.